Comments on: Stock Market & Precious Metals Analysis 5-7-20

By: timboz

timboz — Thu, 07 May 2020 22:43:42 +0000

Hi @rsotc I would be interested in seeing just a little Dollar / Yen USDJPY analysis – I understand the interest in the Euro as the biggest component of the Dollar Index but it seems to my amateur eyes (or biased eyes from my Japan based perspective) that the Yen has a higher correlation to stock market moves in general – until the breakdown this year yen “highs” matched market highs (similar to oil) – love to see your quick thoughts at least on a longer term chart – it seems to me that the yen around 106 has broken “down” (strengthened) out of a multi-year triangle and am looking for a price target even in the neighborhood of 92 or so maybe next year … perhaps another check in the bearish recession box … however I also see some bullish divergences in the indicators as well … possible crosscurrents … pretty sure the manipulation is strong with this pair – was expecting something closer to 100 by now … feels like February redux to me – gold up, bonds up, yen “down” (strengthening), stock market up – one of these things is not like the others and the simplest resolution is for the market to go down

By: Large Coffee

Large Coffee — Thu, 07 May 2020 20:00:48 +0000

In reply to becky. out of the chip stocks, seems AMD and INTC are a lot weaker than NVDA. Means that NVDA has a bit of catching up to do or that INTC/AMD are bottoming out and ready to reverse

By: Imadaytr8r

Imadaytr8r — Thu, 07 May 2020 19:28:43 +0000

In reply to bransth.

Well, it seems the worse the reports are on the economy the higher the market goes … soooo with everyone expecting tomorrow’s unemployment rate to be announced at 17%-20% (I truly gasp at this) and 33,000,000 Americans applying for unemployment in the last 6 weeks I’m expecting futures to explode over night and probably have an all-time gap up tomorrow in all the indexes! Not a cloud in the sky or on the horizon for that matter! Rainbows spewing from all the Fed’s ATM machines throughout the land! ;-) … with that said I’m still holding my shorts up!

By: becky

becky — Thu, 07 May 2020 19:27:27 +0000

@rsotc NVDA stop seems to be in danger. I'd appreciate a quick update on the active trades and their stops today. Thank you.

By: RonkoTonko

RonkoTonko — Thu, 07 May 2020 18:24:40 +0000

In reply to bransth. Many people sitting at home, using thier stimulus checks to gamble on the stock markets. Once the music stops, everyone wants to leave the party but the exit is just a small door.

By: PWL

PWL — Thu, 07 May 2020 18:19:43 +0000

In reply to bransth. When they start dumping AMD, that will be good for us who took Randy's short trade on AMD few weeks ago.

By: Large Coffee

Large Coffee — Thu, 07 May 2020 18:07:08 +0000

In reply to bransth.

i have been reading a lot of cases where with sports betting and vegas closed down, a lot of retail gamblers have piled into stocks using free accounts to satisfy their gambling fix. Must be great for them right now given the fact that everything seems to be always going up…. their will be shock on the day of reckoning … if / when that comes.. the party can’t last forever..

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 07 May 2020 17:37:24 +0000

In reply to Large Coffee. Yes, they did. /GC gold futures are +2.15% on the day so far with /SI silver +3.93%. As the video already ran long enough as it was, I wasn't able to cover Treasury bonds (the other big risk-off/flight-to-safety asset) but /ZB & /UB (long-term Treasury bond futures) are also rallying today, up 1.3% & 1.7% respectively. Although one day doesn't make a trend, the fact that the risk-off assets are catching a strong bid today could indicate institutional investors passing the torch (equities) to retail investors (i.e.- distribution/selling into strength as they move out of equities & into safe-haven assets). I also have /UB impulsively reversing off an uptrend line from January on the 120-min chart below.

By: bransth

bransth — Thu, 07 May 2020 17:31:34 +0000

Just spent some time browsing newbie forums. This totally explains the inflated prices. Randy posted an article a week or two ago showing that a drop to $0 commissions tripled the trading volume. There’s so many new traders who have absolutely no idea what they’re doing. These new traders tend to trade the same stocks (Tesla, AMD, etc) and only do long positions. This explains why AMD had a virtual 100% retracement from March lows (and why the price is still insanely high now). There’s SO many people buying AMD and holding it as a swing trade assuming the price is going to 70. When the price drops, it could drop FAST as all these new traders panic sell fearing it’s going to zero.

By: Large Coffee

Large Coffee — Thu, 07 May 2020 17:09:21 +0000

Hi @rsotc I think both GLD and SLV both broke out while you were posting this video.