Excellent points & it most certainly is not a bear market. Right now, I’m just awaiting some decent sell signals for the next correction but very open to the fact that sooner than later, one of the seemingly run-of-the-mill 5-10% corrections, at which the masses will be looking to buy, will actually be the start of a much larger drop, similar & likely larger than the 20%+ drop last fall.
Also, I’m just not a trend chaser. A big part of my trading style is identifying inflection points (turns) in securities before they happen & then positioning either just before or just after they begin. Nothing wrong with jumping on a trend although that can work quite well during the right market conditions but chop one to pieces in the wrong market conditions & if you look at the price action of the SPX pretty much all year so far minus the explosive move off the Dec 24th lows until about late Feb/each March (most of which I was long/bullish on), you will see a somewhat minor grind higher but with several big corrections that would have most likely stopped out most trend-chasers right about the time they were over as there were two 7-8% corrections plus a 6% correction most recently, certainly not like the easiest ‘chase-the-rally-and-buy-ever-dip’ market in recent history that we had throughout 2017 & into the Jan ’18 peak.
Since then, just about the time it appears safe to get back in the market for long-side trend traders after they were stopped out for a loss on the previous 7-20% drop, that’s about when the next pullback begain (right after they bought back in, which would be about now IMO).

Please you too do not get me wrong. I was long and short today. I see stock market is a little exhausted at this point and correction is probably imminent etc. Plus shitty volume.
My observation though is that most of your trade ideas are counter trend, looking for a trend change.
Once you mentioned that at a time people notice a market pattern it stops working. At a time I thought “if it break to the upside it will go up”. All the difference I see now comparing to other tops is how different stocks behave (intc, ge, tsla, bac and many others). They all jump like trouts in the creek. Plus risk off assets look just ugly. It just don’t look like bear market at all.
All I meant is this : you can miss 2016-2017 move looking for a top… Same story with 1998-2000. To say it elliott words all the fifth wave.
Cheers

Thanks. Got short SPY at 309.50, and monitoring QQQ/NQ on that 8200 TL.

No, see my comments (with the 60m chart of QQQ) in the comment section below this post. QQQ just fell to that 60m TL plus /NQ also hit the 8200 support + the yellow minor uptrend line that I had recently added & covered in the video above. My thoughts are a minor bounce here off the tag of those support levels but probably not worth trying to milk for a long-side bounce trade as I suspect the bounce will be minor & fleeting, followed by a break below those supports which should open the door for a drop to the next target of /NQ 8123ish.

Yep. I’ve had a big R level on my IWM chart around 159.41 that I’ve been watching it fail at on every tag (at least 4 previous distinct reactions) all year with this being the 5th distinct rally into that level. Standing aside the small-cap trade for now as I’d give about equal odds on whether or not they pop that level a run for a bit to clear out the shorts & suck in some longs before falling back below it or not. I’d rather be the second mouse on that trade.

To say “it looks like a big new trend not a minor new high” is highly subjective and actually, not factual as it is, at least at this point, just a minor new high with the broad market (SPY) only trading just under 2% above the previous ATH from Sept 19th. I’ve covered the crystal-clear pattern of all breakout to new highs in the broad market (SPY) over the past couple of years all being marginal new highs that capped out around 2% or less above the previous ATHs from several weeks or months earlier.
While only time will tell if this time around will be different, technical analysis is all identifying current patterns & other technical developments in order to help predict where the market or a security is likely headed based on similar patterns or developments in the past (e.g.- head & shoulders pattern, bullish & bearish wedges, breakouts above/below consolidation ranges or key moving averages, etc.)
So we basically have many similarities to all 4 previous breakouts to new all-time highs that have occurred since the Jan ’18 major ATH with similar negative divergences, overbought readings on the daily RSI, trading volumes dropping off to extremely low levels at which previous corrections began, bullish sentiment recently spiking to extremely high levels at which previous corrections began, etc..
It is the tendency of the masses to become most bullish and feel that the best time to buy stocks is after a bullish trend has been underway for a while & finally become clear to all (aka- recency bias). Most importantly, at least for me, is that although the trend is higher & I can’t make a strong case to initiate a swing short position on the major stock indices, especially without any decent sell signals, the R/R just doesn’t appear favorable to adding a long swing trade position on the indexes here either. As such, I will stick to very short-term tactical trades on the index futures, long and short, while focusing on individual stocks, sectors, and commodities with much better R/R profiles for swing trading than the broad market right now.
I get the whole “buy the dips/the trend is your friend” thing & there’s nothing wrong with being long or going long here with the appropriate stops in place if one believes that there is plenty of upside left in the rally. It’s just not my preference right now but then again, this isn’t a “Follow Me” site. I simply share what I see & what I’m doing and hopefully others find some of that analysis useful to complement their own trading & investing positions.
Hope that helps & again, nothing wrong with going long if you believe there is plenty more upside to come before the next correction. Just make sure to use stops & don’t put all your eggs in one basket (e.g.- stock index ETFs) for both proper diversification plus the fact that the gains, both recent & potential, in the ‘stock market’ pale in comparison to many of the trade ideas highlighted here recently on individual stocks, sectors & commodities.