an additional note for the above question – i chart both the VX1! (continuous) contract or VXF2026 (January) contract

Around the 8th Dec (or thereabouts) you posted a VIX Long wedge-breakout trade. i notice you use VIX–X for charting the VIX – but i also recall you mentioning you prefer to trade VX Futures, which i also prefer to trade Futures.

I am relatively new to trading the VIX. I use Trading View (TV) – so VIX–X does not seem to be available on TV – but VIX CBOE (and also VIX TVC) has exact same pricing levels and pattern. As i write this (22/12) – the VIX (CBOE) is still on the long term uptrend support line you regularly speak about and reference on VIX–X ($14.99). However, the VX Futures have absolutely collapsed beyond that same Uptrend support line; 20.10 down to 17.15

My request for your help is: Why is VIX–X (VIX CBOE) so different to the VX?

Isnt VIX–X a ETP that provides exposure to the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) through futures contracts?

I know there is contract depreciation, contango etc with the ETP – but the price difference seems so much more extreme at the moment.
I was basing my trade decision on the VIX–X analysis. I am now learning that was likely a mistake.

Which should I be basing my analysis on for VX?

Now in deep water on this Long VX trade, it has met the stop – am thinking of closing

Thankyou

The recent price action (the magnitude of the drop over such a short time frame) is/was quite unusual, even for nat gas, especially coming off a big divergent low & preceded by clearly bullish price action.

As such, that makes me a bit cautious/suspect with nat gas right now as there may be some high-level manipulation going on, but with that being said, I still think the long-term charts are constructive & indicate nat gas will be going considerably higher in the coming months.

I pointed out an objective long entry at support on /NG the other day, so I still like a long position with stops somewhat below that support (Tuesday’s low). Looking at the daily chart (more so UNG), there could be a bear flag continuation pattern forming so watch for a potential downside break, as that could be the catalyst for another leg down to a new, but still divergent low.