I wouldn’t count yesterday’s close on IWM as another lower high in regards to the larger downtrend off the May 6th high since IWM just put in a new lower low yesterday. You’d want to see a new distinct reaction high in IWM, at least above the Aug 22nd or Aug 8th previous reaction highs & then have IWM clearly moving lower from there to count that the next lower high within that downtrend.

Agreed. There are most certainly some mixed signals in the markets right now including the fact that the $VIX looks bullish but so does IWM as well as many of those market-leading FAAMG+I stocks I covered yesterday, at least as far as those potentially bullish 60-minute charts (positive divergence with most of those stocks at or just above support). All of those stocks I highlighted yesterday couldn’t possibly rally without the entire stock market rallying as well.
As such, it will be very interesting to see which scenario (bullish or bearish) plays out. Should the divergences on the FAAMG+I stocks fail to play out for a move that they would normally indicate (i.e.- a swing tradable rally lasting at least a week or more & measuring in the high single digits+, percentage-wise) with those stock breaking support, moving lower & then burning through those divergences, that would be very telling IMO as that would be very indicative of bear market behavior (when very clear & obvious bullish technicals fail to play out for a rally).

I was (and still am) viewing a short on TLT or /ZB as either a pure-play short, based on the technicals, and/or an indirect hedge to equity shorts as Treasuries would likely fall if the stock market rallies.