Thank you for your reply Randy. I am short QQQ and calculating where to place my Sell Orders to book profits. From the morning post, whether I read this right or wrong, the sentiment struck me as much more bearish than your evening post. I did not Sell yesterday as I held out for your 240.56 TL. When I watched the evening video which I interpreted as having less bearish conviction, I thought that in hindsight I should have sold on the lower channel bound from 4/21. So I do factor in your TLs in my trades, and I also factor in your conviction. In fact, I committed on your “drop of at least 7.5% (to 229.85)” because I was surprised by the strength of the message…

I do my best to be very literal when describing the probabilities of various scenarios. Likely means just that, likely or what I would define as better than coin-toss (50/50) odds. As I outline in the video as well as other updates, the likelihood or probability of that 7.5% minimum drop will increase substantially if & when QQQ, XLK, and the majority of the 5 FAAMG stocks break the support levels that I highlighted yesterday.
If I could give you an “XYZ or QQQ will definitely do this or that….” type statement, I would. Anyone that tells you with certainty that the market or stock will or must do this or that does not know what he or she is doing. The best we can do with technical and even fundamental analysis, for that matter, is identify likely scenarios & price targets & then assign probabilities to those. As the charts are dynamic (constantly changing) so are my scenarios and/or the probability for any existing scenario.