It appears you didn’t look at the zbt table I posted above as it has never failed since 1950 – it is statistical research not an opinion – when the facts change then I have to change my outlook which is now bullish since April 24th (zbt signal date) at which time you were going short the market – Mr McClellan most likely will also be wrong ignoring the thrust signal. The failures he’s talking about happened in the 1920s which are not relevant as the market structure was different and the sp500 didn’t even start until 1957.

i dont believe randy takes advice from anyone…facts are facts ..hes been wrong
dead wrong on this move for quite a while no matter how he spins it…

CPI # or TRump opens mouth I think will give us a down gap and go …imo

Comments like this baffle me both on how the part where being diversified makes you very conservative (not sure why or how having positions spread out into different asset classes, sectors, and stocks; long (the most bullish) & short (those with bearish charts) is in any way shape or form, conservative or a money-losing strategy.

Leaving money on the table?? Do you really expect to find a service or even believe any individual on earth exists that milks every cent from every trend (bottom to top or vice versa when short) on every trade?

We milked the move down from the 2024 ATH’s about as perfectly as humanly possible, even gaming that first kickback rally into the 200-day MA’s & getting back into the shorts there for more active swing traders.

Then, without mixing words or any ambiguity, I shared my thoughts on the reason for covering shorts & shifting to 100% long equities leading into the April 7th lows, literally stating (on that day the market bottomed):

“I don’t have any indirect hedges that I’m using in my active trading account. I am long equities, short the $VIX, & short Treasuries (see video that I just published). VIXY was a good hedge to being long equities coming into today but now that it hit T2 with the SPY & QQQ hitting my next long-term targets while oversold (i.e.- increasing the odds of a tradable bounce), should equities mount a half-decent or better (5%+) bounce today and/or this week, the $VIX would likely pullback substantially.
If these long-term price targets on QQQ & SPY and T2 on VIXY prove to merely be speed-bumps on the way to the next targets, then VIXY could spike up to T3 this week. I favor the former (bullish/short-covering rally) scenario over the latter but will adjust accordingly, depending on what I see today & as the week progresses.
Regardless, I do not think the R/R is favorable for opening new short positions on the stock market right now, only longs (with the appropriate stops below, for active traders, of course). Typical swing & trend traders should stick with their trading plan & not be swayed by the big intraday swings due to the extreme volatility unless there are compelling changes in the charts that would suggest doing so.”

https://rightsideofthechart.com/vixy-2nd-price-target-hit-for-100-profit-4-7-25/#comment-35164

Since the market bottomed that day on April 7th, QQQ rallied 17% (I was calling for a bounce of around 16-17% before the bounce) very quickly to the bottom of my bounce target zone, which was my stated preferred level to book profits on the longs & start scaling back (but not full, only gradually) into shorts up to but not above the top of the scale in zone/500ish on QQQ.

So basically, the QQQ swing trades YTD & even the long-term trend trades have caught the bulk of the previous big drop & about 1/2 of the bounce off the April lows with a gradual scale back into shorts that, at least for my trading plan, is on hold pending the aforementioned sell signals (uptrend line breaks & drop back below the 200’s).. or a scale/stop out plan if the market continues to gain much from here.

..and then there’s all the other “stuff” swing trades, long & short, on individual stocks, bonds, & various commodities, many of which are uncorrelated to the stock market.

Full article if link doesn’t open:

Don’t bet too heavily on the bullish Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, McClellan says

ByTomi Kilgore

A lot of Wall Street technicians have been talking about the bullish Zweig Breadth Thrust that was triggered on Thursday. The signal, conjured by the late Martin Zweig, appears after calculations of market breadth relative to certain moving averages, as the McClellan Market Report editor Tom McClellan said, show that “breadth numbers go from pretty ugly to pretty great in a rapid reversal.”

McClellan said since the 1980s, the “ZBT” has done “pretty well” at marking interesting buy levels for strong new uptrends, but acknowledged that it hasn’t been perfect. For Thursday’s ZBT, McClellan said his expectation was that it “is not going to turn out to be a stellar example of this signal.”

He believes the market strength that triggered the ZBT is a “typical bear market countertrend rally,” which could fizzle fast. McClellan has been neutral for short- and intermediate-term trading cycles the past two days, after being bearish for the previous seven sessions.

For long-term trading styles, he has been bearish for a while: “We are still in a bear market, and it has more time yet to run.”

I’ve heard quite a bit here lately about that & one could argue the opposite (bullish bias based on the Zweig Thrust or “_______” (plug in the bullish indicator/buy signal de jour).

A) I had a trading plan in place before that (or any other recent buy signals) triggered in which I was already long off the recent lows and ..B) expected the market to go up to a range (bounce target zone) which is a hair below where it went today.

If I thought that the market would likely bounce to where it has… and it has, and my plan was to game the bounce up to the bottom of that bounce target zone and then close out the longs & start scaling back into swing shorts, which it still is why would I alter or second guess that plan if so far it continues to play out as expected???

I guess you can call that bearish bias as that is my expectation now, but no different than my bullish bias (and positioning) off the April 7th lows while expecting the market to bounce from a relatively small range just as I am expecting it to reverse & resume lower from a pre-determinded range this time. I’m sure there were a litany of “bearish” or “crash” signals firing off around the April 7th lows. I just wouldn’t put too much stock into the Zwieg Thurst or any other stand-alone indicator.

A quick google search will tell you it is the best thing since sliced bread -OR-, like just about any indicator, is hit or miss… again, bias will steer one towards which spin of an indicators accuracy they want to hear. FWIW, my thoughts.. and experience, mirror those of this piece, especially that part that states: “the market strength that triggered the ZBT is a “typical bear market countertrend rally,” which could fizzle fast.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-set-to-lead-gains-after-blowout-alphabet-results/card/don-t-bet-too-heavily-on-the-bullish-zweig-breadth-thrust-signal-mcclellan-says-xtqGymosoyb6V9q11ig2

Tariff deal with U.K = 3%-4% rally
Tariff deal with China = 3%-4% rally
Next up….E.U. tariff deal

I’m don”t mean to be critical, but weren’t you concerned that a tariff deal was imminent? The wheels were wobbling on the global economy and the 2 super powers were having a meeting over the weekend.

This may be a short lived rally but a deal affecting the whole world is a big deal.

Glad you asked. As SOXX offers the most objective short entry since the July highs last year, I will post the charts & some commentary on a new home page post right now.

This reminds of spring 2020 after covid and the market bounced back above the 62.8% Fibs, and everyone said once that happens, the bottoms was in. But Randy was stubborn. I lost money then and lost a lot now with my shorts, and short calls on my long positions. Randy, even though you say be diversified, it subconsciously makes us ( or at least me) very conservative and we either lose money or minimally leave a lot money on the table we didn’t make.