Thanks for the follow up reply. Seems like WMT is breaking this trendline right now. But I guess we’d have to wait and see if that holds or if it zips it back up within the next 30 to 60 minutes.

WallyWorld too. WMT pushing all-time highs yet if anything, it would have to say that their target market is a consumer a notch down on the income bracket range vs.Target & that (slightly lower-income) demographic tends to purchase more consumer staples (toilet paper, groceries, etc… low margin items) and less discretionary, higher-margin items.

Given, WMT is the better run of the two but if that Target says they are seeing a shift towards low margin items, that is almost certainly a systematic shift among their demographic which is comparable to Walmart’s. Glancing at the weekly chart of WMT, I see about 19% downside in the stock over the next 3-12 months but no clear sell signals yet although it is currently testing a key 60-minute uptrend lin off the 3/26 low in which a sell signal will be triggered should it drop much below 130.

Yep. NFLX is another one of several Catch 22’s that I can see with various securities lately: Coronavirus impact/fears goes away from here & the economy gets back on track, everyone goes back to work & no more stay-at-home order. Hence, a reversal (cancellation) of a good part of those recent new subscriptions canceled.

Coronavirus gets worse with another big wave coming, the economy will outright crash, forcing consumers to cut costs wherever they can & a Netflix subscription is right up there with one of the very first discretionary (non-essential) spending items to go. NFLX bump in subscribers is just like the bump in toilet paper sales, a temporary surge in demand soon to be followed by a back-end drop-off in demand & reversion to the mean (demand for the product).

Thx for passing that along. I wasn’t aware but that does mesh with the fundamental case for the COST short as the US consumer is the US consumer & I think it is a safe bet to say that the demographic for Target shoppers largely overlapped that of Costco shoppers.

The first month is free. If I was unemployed I’d take the free month and then cancel after I caught up on everything.