Certainly a possibility & thx for sharing the charts & your thoughts. My thoughts, assuming that “one last thrust up’ scenario is likely is the whole “trying to pick up nickles in front of a steamroller” thing;

Right or wrong, I see another 20-25% downside in the market from current levels & if correct, I think that will happen much faster than most would image. My best guess is at best, maybe another 3 weeks of sideways to slighter lower or higher prices until after the top components of the NDX report, at which point the impulsive selling will begin that could take the market down to my next bear market targets in mere weeks.

As such, I view the R/R to being long to try and game a few percentage points to the upside as extremely poor in light of the downside potential. JMHO, of course.

Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PUvifSbh/
Ticker: Amazon
Timeframe: Daily

Since the bear market, Amazon has only had to put in a single negative divergence on the daily timeframe before initiating the next thrust down.

I’m looking at the obvious breaks of very clear ascending trendlines that were followed by breaks + red PPO crossovers. These periods last an average of 24 days.

Amazon may be the first to go if todays cross sticks.

Here’s Apple as an example given its weight in QQQ.

Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qnj5wZ34/
Timeframe: Daily
Grey Boxes = Red PPO Periods

Currently, it feels eerily similar to the high before the bear market. It may not prove to be the exact same, but I sense (like last time), one last thrust up and then the dump. You’ll notice that in mid-December 2021, we did make that bearish cross over on the PPO. That immediately transitioned into that last thrust before the breakdown that stuck.

This feels the same. Now, if we break down below the current ascending trendline without one last thrust, that could be all she wrote.