its dangerous when you think to yourself im right and the
mkt wrong.

You its true, you see what you want to see! I kinda agree with your analysis and we are a technical traders and clearly all major indices are making HH and HL but fundamentally I feel like worse is yet to come and for some reason I feel like Wall Street is setting up the biggest BULL TRAP in history which is why I am Short at this level and been holding the short since Oct 2022!

1y is at 4.4% + .10 this is about 4.5% loan to banks.

I think we should see a trap.. so am short term bearish this afternoon. But all of it fixed risk. With a 30-90 day window. The set up is there for a pull back, but in every strong advance there will be divergence showing up. you have to pick your battles with Randys calls. This divergence coupled with the proximity to trapping a huge number of longs and stopping out the last hold outs in the short camp i think is worth it. But 99% of my $ is earning 4+% interest until I can be convinced to go long for a couple years.

In hindsight we might look back and wonder why we didn’t buy with all the leverage we could get ahold of when QQQ retested of the 200dayMA while at the same time the Fed pivoted. Could have been the best buying opportunity of the next ten years. Otherwise, we really need to hope and pray for absolute economic destruction for Randy’s bearish thesis to play out.

Thanks for the info! Although I appreciate Darius Dale’s work, he is not a “trader” and I actually subscribed to his newsletter and lost money on every suggested trade. The BTFP may or may not be what we previously called QE, but it does indicate a massive Fed pivot, and that’s all that matters to the market. BTFP = “Buy the F–ing Pivot!”