Thx & nice spot, that’s exactly what happened yesterday when I was out (backtest of the 200-day MA’s on SPY & QQQ yesterday.

Keep in mind, with volatility high & both man & machine (retail & institutional traders as well as trading programs) conditioned to buy pullbacks to the 200-day MA’s, buyers & sellers could duke it out for a bit here around the 200’s. Ideally, for the bearish case, the further the indexes drop below the 200’s & the longer (in days/weeks) they do, the more the odds that my next downside targets will be hit.

POTUS will say & do anything in his power to keep that from happening, as even he is almost certainly aware of the technical significance of the stock market crossing down below the 200-day MA’s (as well as the multi-month trading range they’ve been in). Expect more wild swings until & unless we hit that escape velocity/P.O.R. level where the dam breaks & the stock market enters crash-type mode with mostly unidirectional & very impulsive selling (consecutive 3-5% down days). At that point, the dip buyers will have recognized that their strategy that’s worked so well for so long is no longer working.

As an avid poker player, I can tell you that once the bulk of the players in a game zero in on the fact that if another player at the table doesn’t use bluffing judiciously & strategically, like any good & experienced poker player does, rather too much (with nearly every hand, in this case), they start calling his buffs & that’s when those buffs (for that player) are no longer effective. TACO is getting quite old at this point & sooner than later, the stock market is going to have that “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me” ephiphany.

countries are always talking during war. The challenge is that the president is a great exaggerator. This is far from over. Iranian Kurds are being armed. Only a matter of time before they attack. If they make any progress against the regime, missiles will fly at GGC states. This genie can’t be put back into the bottle easily.

Stop loss orders are important now. One rumor can move the market quickly. Oil dropped 14% in 5 minutes about 15 mins before trump’s social media post.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-iran-war-talks-power-attacks-hormuz-israel-energy-prices-rcna264688

Everyone needs a “trading plan”…..right now I trust the technicals rather than Trump’s word. Especially since Iran officials came out and said no talks are taking place.

Hopefully there will come a time when his BS will not be believed because he’ll have cried wolf once too often! I believe Tehran over him when they say there were no talks

not so sure about short into tomorrow….??

What now geo

Why is it Randy is always gone when we need him. Now what next

Let’s try to play the TACO game. I am scaling back into short QQQs.

I had a great short today :) both ways could have had great success.

I sold 50% and put SL very tight.
I think its a great moment to add to the shorts. Or buy new ones. ?

I am not sure, this time might be different.
I remember many -5-8% pre market events which we have not seem for a long time!

People seem not to believe it can actually drop that much in one day. It has not happened for a long time!

I’m holding short untill I see a big red candle that is a temporary bottom candle.

The Bulls had a great run, a seriously stupidly easy run, buy every dip! My colleagues at work seriously going almost ALL-IN in EVERY 3% drop in the market.

This pattern is baked in many traders which eventually will hurt them… a lot and then panic starts.

Leveraged positions will trigger SL result in more selling…

Smart move, holding short over this weekend imo was NOT the thing to based upon a few key variables and mu own TA, the news about some leanancy to IRAN just so happen to confirm that,,,,,MONDAY + we should go up imo, not short….

MU could pop till the pivot. Normally 1020 EST. Randy’s not said anything specific on it but it drops more than the soxx

That’s certainly in the realm of possibilities and even decent probabilities. However, we only closed slightly below those key support levels on the indexes and I certainly noticed the relative strength in the banks today which is followed through to yesterday’s announcement that is Trump administration is going to ease capital requirements for the banks.

For my analysis there’s just too much in the charts right now for that to alter the trajectory of the markets in the coming weeks to months. If we pop back above the 200s on Monday maybe a short covering rally for a half a day or so but anything up to the midpoint of the trading ranges it’s still an objective short entry IMO, although if we do regain the the bottom of the trading ranges & the 200’s next week I’ll most likely sit tight, watch and let the market show its hand before doing much in either direction meaning adding to or reducing any net bearish market exposure.

Don’t get me wrong, the The probability of a big drop a crash type move in the market is most certainly considerably higher now than it was yesterday or at any other point in recent years so I still favor a net short portfolio with some dry powder to add next week if the deal is sealed with acceleration to the downside.

Out of puts nicely, obvious opex action, went long for next week..:)