I welcome & encourage all feedback, including & especially opinions, views, and/or charts that differ from my views. I’m also trying my best to question & find fault in my own outlook on the market or any other trades & although I may not always agree with them, I find alternative views very useful. The last thing I want is a bunch of die-hard followers that parrot & confirm every view that I have.

Randy. Both of those indices have futures decay. Look it up. DJP has futures decay. Google their current holdings and read the prospectus.

There is a simple, simple, simple way to prove all of this.You are telling me commodities are -80% from the 2008 highs. So let’s put that to a “sniff test”.

At the peak in 2008, do you remember seeing these prices? Because if commodities are down -80% from the 2008 highs, then these are the prices we would have seen in stores:

1 gallon of milk = $14.95

Carton of eggs = $11.45

1 lb ground beef = $33.45

Pack of 8 chicken breasts = $75.90

1 gallon of orange juice = $28.90

A single 2×4 wood stud = $20.55

_____________________________

None of that happened in 2008. How cannot see that simple logic is a bit baffling.

My favorite market technical indicator says the first 3 weeks of April will be up, and the market will begin to roll over the last week of April.

No guarantees here or anywhere.

GSCI has futures decay, as does DJP.

Go up to anybody tell them they are paying -50% to -80% less for food, energy, wood, cotton, etc. compared to 2008. They will either look at you like you’re crazy or laugh – maybe both.

I also don’t see it. I know for a fact I am not paying less for those things compared to 2008. The coffee I purchase did not drop -50%. The cost for home building materials is not -50% lower. The price of food is not -50% less.

Look, this whole thing we’re talking about here is beyond the bigger point as to why I started asking you about your macro view with commodities. The initial reason was because I wanted to know why you thought we could go into a hard recession with equities lower and commodities moving higher. I somewhat understand your thoughts now.

I agree that scenario could occur due to de-globalization / war escalation which you mentioned last time. That was my base case for such an odd macro divergence occurring. I do agree that on a relative-basis versus the 2008 highs, “some” commodities appear to be underpriced (but not by -50% to -80%). I disagree that heading into a recession is the right time to place those bets that those types of commodity divergences would suddenly come back into alignment (without some other trigger such as war escalation).

All-in-all, I still have the same perspective. Anytime I see commodities start to move higher, I get concerned that recession risks are subsiding or Putin / Xi are up to something.

..and even with the fact that DJP is still currently up about 107% off the end of the bear market/start of new bull market back in March 2020 as of today (after the 168% peak gain at the June 2022 highs so far), DJP is still down about 57% from its 2008 bull market peak today, again, after a total drop of nearly 80% from the previous bear market (2008-2020). I’m really trying hard to see the math or charts you’re looking at but just don’t see it.

More specifically to DJP, it’s isn’t leveraged nor is performance bad due to the inherent expenses that all ETFs & ETN’s carry. In fact, I think it’s done a bang-up job of trackin the index that it attempts to track, even OUTPERFORMING the index substantially over the past 6-months, 1-yr, & 3-yr periods & only a slight underperformane since inception. https://ipathetn.barclays/details.app;instrumentId=1193

oh, and if you would rather i hold any commentary contrary to the videos i can do that with no problem. sincerely

I like your analysis a lot. that’s why i subscribe. but lately i’ve chosen not to. It’s ok i sold longs Nov/Dec 21. went long Oct 22. 10 day weighted equity put/call has worked well for me. that’s why i went long ndx at 290 still holding, intc 29 and 27 and still holding. we don’t have to jive all the time

Yes, we can agree on that. Commodities didn’t fall 55% since their previous bull market peak back in 2008, they fell around 80% into the 2020 bear market bottom. Here are the chart of the S&P GSCI Commodities Index as well as the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

I want to understand lol. All of the charts I’ve posted over the past couple weeks don’t have futures decay and are directly from the Federal Reserve.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAC

I always say: Pass on the trades that don’t mesh with your own outlook. However, by that logic, you would have passed on the QQQ swing short/sell signals & objective short entries I gave back in Nov 2021 (start of bear market) and around the tops of the previous 2 major bear market rallies so far. You’d have also passed (and/or stayed been short) on the longs before the major bear market rallies, such as those posted on the big leading tech stocks & QQQ right after the start of 2023 when they were right around their bear market lows.

Trend chasers are & (IMHO) will continue to get slaughter in this bear market for that reason, at long as the bear market continues. Recency bias poses a bigger risk than confirmation bias at this time IMO, assuming that one’s confirmation bias has them recognizing but ignoring/over-riding bullish delevopments on the daily & weekly charts, at least until the longer-term trend indicators mostly or all flip back to bullish.

No chance. Still negative divergence on both the miners, gold, & Euro 60m charts (plus neg D on gold daily) although I wouldn’t add to GDX until & unless it moves back down below the 60m uptrend line again & soon.

Subscribers comments welcome!