Comments on: Stock Market & Coal Sector Analysis 9-18-20

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:13:59 +0000

In reply to devnat. There are dozens or even hundreds of sectors & sub-sectors & while I try to continually or at least occasionally look at all (or as many as I can), I only post analysis & trade ideas on sectors & stocks that are either currently actionable or potentially setting up for an actionable trade. Here's my daily chart of XLV which recently put in a divergent high (bearish) & then triggered a sell signal on a breakdown below the uptrend line/rising wedge pattern. After backtesting the wedge from below, XLV took the next leg down and is now testing trendline (purple) support & price support so not an objective time to short. In fact, this is an objective time to go long either for a quick bounce trade or possibly more. However, with the Nasdaq breaking down below the recent trading range today, I don't care to go long XLV or just about any other sector of the S&P 500 as we are likely to get a broad-based selloff due to tech taking the market down with it just as it dragged the market higher on the way up.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:05:13 +0000

In reply to Araleia. The slide in the futures into Monday morning (today) put the $NDX clearly below the bottom of the recent trading range, providing the next objective short entry with stops somewhat above the bottom of the trading range, ideally on a daily closing basis. Unless the market pulls a rabbit out of its hat & does it soon, looks like the Q's are headed down to at least T5 this week.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:01:53 +0000

In reply to jon@jongolnik.com. The daily chart of the $VIX summarized the recent price action in the $VIX along with the next likely trend. I have to say the odds for that next leg up to the 45-50 target zone on $VIX will depend almost exclusively on today's breakdown sticking with QQQ continuing down to T5 or below.

By: devnat

devnat — Sat, 19 Sep 2020 21:10:29 +0000

Hi Randy, BTW I have not see much analysis from you in Healthcare sector. Is this something that you normally cover? Looks like the sector is still doing ok

By: becky

becky — Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:52:08 +0000

In reply to Araleia. You can draw it in any way you want but I think we're at around the lows & the bounce is not impossible at all given how aggressive the FED has been all these months since March lows. Short term: any good news on Monday & it will bounce.

By: sberenschot

sberenschot — Sat, 19 Sep 2020 06:17:33 +0000

In reply to Araleia. It's a backtest of support, you can enter a short, with stoploss above 10800.

By: Araleia

Araleia — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:28:39 +0000

In reply to becky. Well, NASDAQ composite could not get above 10800 to close the day. This is a positive for the bears?

By: devnat

devnat — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:28:04 +0000

Randy, great call on BTU !

By: Araleia

Araleia — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:24:54 +0000

@rsotc If I've read the levels right, and you had the video done at around 12noon. Your support for NASDAQ was around 108xx. After that, we did have an impulsive leg down and break support. NASDAQ went all the way to 10650, back tested and closed below 10800. So, do you define this as a breakdown for NASDAQ. Can we start shorting again next Monday? Thanks.

By: jon@jongolnik.com

jon@jongolnik.com — Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:37:09 +0000

Hi, Randy. The VIX doesn’t seem to be responding to market weakness. I understand this simply reflects that 1) the VIX is already high relative to history, so something unusually scary has to happen for the VIX to spike from here and 2) so much of the rally has been call buying, so retail traders are selling calls in size (rather than buying puts), which actually depresses the VIX. Thoughts?