Comments on: Stock Market Breadth Indicators 3-18-22

By: mljohnson58

mljohnson58 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 20:12:37 +0000

And just like that my thesis was confirmed. 60min candle closes in the last 30 minutes of trade above 350.61 (23.6% big picture fib, covid low to highs). If this holds until the open on Monday, you can bet they are running for the next level which is about 360.47. Problem is, they have to get through some big moving averages. Or maybe, a big gap down Monday to trap all the longs. But so far, the MO has been if they can get above a key fib level, they invest heavily to get to the next. We will see.

By: mljohnson58

mljohnson58 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 19:22:30 +0000

In reply to Mikeflegel.

Mike,
The other thing that really bothers me is we have not moved far enough down the falling wedge to get a major breakout. Usually, you are 70-80% down a falling wedge or up a rising wedged before a break. I think the bulls engineered a minor divergent low, coupled with the Fed week/speak BS and that gave them what they needed. If you look carefully, the largest parts of this move were in lightly traded overnight markets, especially to get them to key levels. The banksters are at it again…

By: mljohnson58

mljohnson58 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 19:10:01 +0000

In reply to Mikeflegel. For me it means 350 ish is an objective short to use Randy's language. And if it pushes through that level, 358-360 would be the next objective short level. Right at the 200ema, 100 ema and 50% fib level, IMO. Watch the 10 and 20 ema. When 60 min candles solidly cross back below, it's a trend change. The decline to date has been closely following these moving averages and will provide a good tactical entry signal.

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 19:07:15 +0000

Randy, Nice analysis. What if a person does not want to miss the rocket to new highs but agrees it is a strange to bottom with out capitulation. Where is the actionable steps if there is any??? Thanks

By: tjohnson480

tjohnson480 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 18:47:16 +0000

In reply to Mikeflegel. Also the 6 month dailey standard deviation median line is coming in at 351.79

By: Mikeflegel

Mikeflegel — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 18:34:40 +0000

In reply to mljohnson58. Interesting. Could you put that into an actionable position at present for you?

By: mljohnson58

mljohnson58 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 18:05:29 +0000

Randy, your analysis on breath indicators is insightful and much appreciated. But as I commented last night, QQQ is heading to the top of the 3/3 candle which is right at the 23.6% fib retracement from the covid lows to the all-time index highs. It also happens to coincide with the 38.2% retracement level from the QQQ breakdown high ( 403.57) to the 317.45 low. These all line up within pennies of each other. Also the 100 ma is right on top of that line. I guess we could waltz through there, especially with a gap up on Monday morning, but I am having a hard time believing that we could continue to just waltz through the resistance at the 200ema ( just below the 50% retracement fib for this move down and the 100 ema which is sitting right on the 50% retracement.) For me, I see this as a "fake break" and once it retraces and breaks back below the falling wedge trend line, its going back to the bottom of the pattern ( falling wedge) which will put it where your original targets (299) are. I'm sure they will close the day with following usual practice at or just above the 23.6% big picture fib to make everyone think the coast is clear to get back into the pool. BTW, other stocks that have been destroyed have all are following Fib levels from the covid lows. I'm sure you know this. I think we need to keep that information in front of us as this seems to be the MO for the entire market. Also, credit is not tracking and this is a big red flag for me. Sorry for the long winded response..

By: Rekar

Rekar — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:41:07 +0000

Bears are not for the faint of heart. Right now I am at the top of my money for shorts. Fortunately, my other positions have largely offset the losses as I built my short position in QQQ. Right now your TA matches what my macro is saying so I am content to take my large position and wait.

By: pbwilli37

pbwilli37 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:26:52 +0000

Randy, could you let us know before the close if you decided to lower your short or exit it please. If you see something we don’t, it would be appreciated.

By: jmcolli07

jmcolli07 — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:23:45 +0000

Randy, Is there a location where any of these market breadth indicators are available to be used?