No, the fed is providing a temporary base to the stock market. Their actions thus far have no effect on the unemployed, furloughed, or cyclical parts of the economy.

Also, a third round of stimulus is being worked in congress, as I write this. Even if the markets plunge a bit, that stimulus is headed our way.

I have to disagree with you saying the Fed is irrelevant. On the contrary, I think they are providing a temporary base for economy while the consumers are at home. Just my opinion

At this point, I think I would have to be in agreement. We’ve had consecutive days of horrendous news, and the SPY has hardly budged down. If the recent news isn’t enough to get it to move, then it will probably take something really, really bad, which probably won’t come for awhile, if ever. Also, it occured to me that the entire world has been injecting liquidity into their economies. It’s not just the U.S. A lot of global liquidity is ending up in the U.S. markets. I’m going to sit mostly on dry powder, for now, and if something really solid appears, I might jump in. Until then, wait for the next bargains, I suppose.

Thank you for sharing the video. I watched the whole thing. I enjoy hearing other people’s views to understand where you are coming from.

I think there’s both a bottom and a top, neither have anything to do with the fed. Fed is irrelevant. We will trade sideways between 263 in SPY and 281, maybe 292. But the big drop will come during the summer. Too many people are short right now for a large drop, in my opinion.

He’s been saying that for a long time. He says it every day in his daily briefings.

The mockingbird media was occasionally reporting the large increase in suicide numbers. They no longer are. There’s been more suicides than corona deaths in many states.

Big fan of Netflix, I have a subscription. I just wonder how many more subs they have gotten out of this. Anyone heard? I did search but came up empty.

The asset bubble was already about to pop in February, so using that as an accurate gauge for where asset prices should be is not valid, in my opinion. The 30% correction was probably necessary and healthy absent coronavirus. Yes, the fed is inflating the stock market, but if/when it bursts it will fall to where it should be, which I think is much lower (coronavirus or not). The question is when will it pop. Personally, I think we will fall maybe 10% in the next few days, then rise again to retest the current highs, then make the big fall down to March lows during the summer.

locking down the country may kill more people with depression, drugs, malnutrition than a virus that kills fewer than yearly seasonal flu. i will take my chance in the pool…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWnx8iSRlYc

I heard a funny quote “Not locking down the whole country is like saying its okay to pee in some parts of the pool”.

NFLX earnings are next Tuesday. It has had a nice run and is a momentum play. It is setting its self up for gap down on earnings if they did not have a huge jump in new subscribers. It seems most people I know that have kids added disney+. They may even have dropped NFLX to add disney+? This seems like a very dangerous play right now, especially at 52 week highs.

Netflix doesn’t make money when people watch their content, they make money when people subscribe to their content. So, the question is will people subscribe due to stay-at-home orders? And, isn’t the first month free?

I’d be concerned how much growth NFLX could have in this environment. I’m sure they’ll have a little revenue growth in the near short term for the reasons you state but there’s so much competition in that industry that I don’t see them continuing the numbers they’ve had when people have less discretionary income.

I just remembered, NFLX, is a stock in the QQQ. If we stick to our belief that the markets will eventually come down to reality, then the QQQ will be taking a hit. Hm, I’m now rethinking my NFLX purchase.

Index options have been slightly bearish while equity options bullish in recent days.
How is that normally interpreted?

Thanks for the timelines. I really appreciate people (who think completely different than me) sharing what they’re up to on the spot –not a week later…
Thanks

I just bought some NFLX, despite the recent run up. I think about myself, and how much more Netflix I’ve been watching. Also, the quality of shows on Netflix seems to be getting really good. A year’s worth of global populations watching tv, has to be great for the stock, IMHO.