Comments on: SPY Trade Update + QQQ Analysis

By: Dbat83

Dbat83 — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:43:35 +0000

Fed funds rate is showing negative rates now

By: gmatache

gmatache — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:42:03 +0000

Some simple rules to stop losing money:
1. Stop blaming the Fed, the Trumps, the Japanese, the Aliens and God. The fact that one person is bleeding money has nothing to do with them.
2. There is no market manipulation. The Fed is doing EXACTLY what the Fed is supposed to do and if one person doesn’t like that, well … tough luck.
3 IF there was market manipulation (see point 2, there isn’t), it’s the trader’s duty to see that manipulation and embrace the trend, not fight it
4. Keep your stops in place (suspending them every day is something between poor judgement and gambling) and take the loss. Then take a day to do an HONEST and UNBIASED review of what went wrong. Lick your wounds and reenter the game with a better mindset.
4. Stop following Randy like a puppy. While he has some good trades, his analysis is at best inadequate. For the past 6 weeks I have been arguing my bullish posture by writing about the Fair value of the stocks and the NPV (net present value), about consumer psychology, about Modern Monetary Theory, about unemployment, about QE and posted so many charts. That is waaay more than Randy did and that’s because most likely he doesn’t have the knowledge. No, I am not telling anyone to follow me instead, but you MUST get your information from at LEAST 2 sources. Oh yeah, and make sure that does 2 sources don’t agree 100%. You know who has been right 50 times more than Rand? Jim Cramer! The dude is nuts (or that’s his TV persona), but he knows what he does.
5. Read, read, read and then read some more.
– Read about the Japanese QE strategy. They have been doing it for 30 years and the country is not on fire and now the US and the EU are doing it, This is the future.
– Read about the 2008 QE and learn that the new Fed strategy has no precedent, therefore comparing present day crises with the past is like comparing apples and monkeys. This is why every drop in the stock market in the past 2-3 years has a V-shape recovery (read about that too).
– Read about QE in general. No, QE will not generate a lot of inflation despite the infinite money printing, because inflation is caused by an increase of the monetary mass AVAILABLE TO CONSUMERS. The money that the Fed is “printing” now (by the way, they are not actually printing paper money) will not reach you and me, so there will be no significant inflation
– Read about stock valuation. Read about the P/E ratio and the Net Present Value
Just read a lot. Or, if you don’t have enough time to read, at least, for God’s sake, take your information from multiple sources who don’t have tunnel vision and an old love for shorting.

By: pbwilli37

pbwilli37 — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:32:41 +0000

I guess I did not know what the new normal truly was going to be, buy on real bad news and sell on great news. The power of the world banks and the Fed has changed the playing field dramatically. I feel that they are wanting the SPY to cross the 3000 level from 03/05/2020 and fill the 229.32 gap on QQQ from 02/21/2020.

By: Imadaytr8r

Imadaytr8r — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:30:59 +0000

In reply to bransth.

Let me guess, the next BOLD line of resistance is 100%? My hunch is the market should stall just long enough at that point to decide to book our loses and sit satisfied that we financed the V recovery Trump predicted! TRUMP right again! …. nothing goes up forever … does it?

By: FooHawk

FooHawk — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:27:16 +0000

In reply to hotrodricky. I like your thought, but the VIX follows the market, not the other way around. It tracks excessive S&P 500 index options and my limit just executed, so i hope you are correct.

By: hotrodricky

hotrodricky — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:24:38 +0000

The action in the futures market “feels” exhaustive to me.
Keep in mind, also, that the VIX is sitting right on its lower Bollinger Band. A close below the band today will set up a broad stock market sell signal when the VIX closes back inside the bands. And, if that doesn’t happen – and the VIX simply bounces higher from here – then stocks will endure at least a short term decline.

By: bransth

bransth — Fri, 08 May 2020 14:02:43 +0000

In reply to hafstjl06. Update for the market. Randy said in a few videos that if /NQ broke certain levels of support, it could only be construed as bullish. QQQ gapped up over the 78.6 fib. There have been more changes than we have had in a typical morning.

By: susantrade3

susantrade3 — Fri, 08 May 2020 13:53:59 +0000

Obviously we didn’t get the Memo to BUY in MAY and GO AWAY as the world is turned upside down! LOL. OR the PPT (Price Protection Team) over at Treasury has brought in Japanese Market Manipulators.

By: becky

becky — Fri, 08 May 2020 13:45:23 +0000

In reply to hafstjl06. No update on NVDA although we closed a bit above the stop yesterday and Randy mentioned that he may modify the stop but he never came back with an update on that one.

By: hafstjl06

hafstjl06 — Fri, 08 May 2020 13:37:22 +0000

In reply to bransth. Update for what? The stop is on a daily close above those levels and if it doesn't look like we'll fall below then before end of day, you might want to close out the trade.