Thanks for this Randy. My decision has been to hold the existing QQQ Short. I believe a turn / reverse is/was on the cards this week. Lets hope, next week it plays out for sure.

Congrats on the long & best of luck on the short.

Thank you, I sold my long and back on shorting QQQ when it filled the gap.

Depends on how mild or severe the recession would be but to have a decent recession without a bear market would be quite unusual, especially considering how late we are in the business cycle (at or near the longest expansion/bull market in history) coupled with the bearish posture of the long-term charts. Anything is possible but that would not be probable.

I believe there is some value in EW theory but in my somewhat limited experience with EW counts over the years, I find it a bit too subjective & prone to too many after-the-fact revisions on the counts for my taste. I always welcome & encourage others to share their wave counts & those of other Eliotticians.

Some say that the Dow Theory isn’t as useful as a predictive indicator as it used to be since the makeup of the transportation index has changed so much since Charles Dow came up with it the 1800’s but with that being said, the severe underperformance of the tranpos to the $DJIA is just one more of many red flags that have been building on this market for some time now.

The short-term trend is bullish but the current trend may or may not be the same as my near-term outlook at any given time. In fact, right now my expectation is for a trend reversal as /NQ is currently backtesting the 60-minute uptrend line that it broke below earlier today. My expectation is that it will reverse following this backtest with a selloff in the last hour of trading today but my convictions aren’t high enough to add QQQ back as another official short trade at this time.

As it’s Friday of a low-volume, abbreviated trading week, I plan to sit back & wait to see how the market trades earlier next week before adding to or subtracting any of my index shorts.

PS I’ve been to Costa Rica a couple of times. It’s beautiful country to drive through.

Thanks!!!

What’s going on, at least by my interpretation, is that there are two schools of thought on the market: Those that think that the Fed has finally figured out the magic formula to permanently prevent all future recessions via monetary policy (i.e.- those bullish on the stock market, looking for the bull market to continue) and those like myself, that believe that both the technicals & fundamentals still matter & will ultimately play out.
Most, but not all, economic indicators have been turning down recently, some at fairly alarming rates. I can say with the highest degree of certainty, should that trend continue, then we will be looking at a very big (20%-30%+) drop in the market while what I can not say with certainty is whether or not the recent weakness in the economic indicators will only prove to be temporary, similar to what we experienced in 2015-2016 when the stock market had the biggest & longest correction since the bull market started in March 2009.
The fact that the technicals confirm the bearish case & are pointing to a major top in the stock market indicates that the economy will continue to weaken going forward, despite what I believe is an inevitable truce with the trade wars.
JMHO of course so I’ll continue to assess the charts as they develop & do my best to change my longer-term outlook if/when the technicals convince me to do so.
As of now, both the short-term (days to weeks) trend is bullish as well as the longer-term trend (years) while the intermediate-term trend (months) is neutral as the stock market as basically gone nowhere over the past year & a half (i.e.- the S&P 500 is trading about 3% above where it was back in January of 2018).