SPCX hasn’t (clearly) taken out the downtrend line yet & I have no desire (and didn’t, as it was already hit) to take profits at T1, so no high-fives yet. I’m going to touch on SPCX in a video I’m about to do & will share my reasoning, but in a nutshell, almost all intuition with a tinge of technical analysis.

I am curious though, was the main thing you were looking at the bullish divergence on the 5 or 30 minute charts? I noticed the hammer type candles on thursday and friday, and then it looked like a bottoming tail yesterday on the daily. Nice bullish engulfing today. Woot!

As far as it going on to hit T2, T3, & potentially that doomsday final target at T4, high even to keep some mild-to-moderate (beta-adjusted) short exposure to MSTR & /BRR but not yet high enough to use the juice via MSTZ (-2x short MSTR), as I’d prefer to see the recent breakout (above those bullish falling wedges/downtrend lines on IBIT & MSTR) fail PLUS the recent lows and the positive divergences taken out. If/when that happens (and assuming it doesn’t prove to be a whipsaw), the odds of at least T2 & quite likely T3 being hit in relatively short order will be good, IMO.

Let’s see how the market reacts to the Big 4 tech earnings and/or the FOMC. At some point in the not-so-distant, and potentially very near, future, I think the odds of a broad-based liquidation event are likely & if so, the speculative crap & leveraged vehicles like Bitcoin, MSTR, even some high-yield funds (several of the big preferred dividend ETFs, initially geared for more conservative income investors, hold Strategy’s preferred ponzi-shares).

However, patience pays. I need to see some key technical levels in the major indices, key tech, semi, & AI-related stocks, financials, Bitcoin, etc.. get taken out. A solid breakout to new multi-decade highs in both the 30-yr & 10-yr Treasuries wouldn’t hurt either. Basically, still a stock-picker’s market right now with rapid & profitable sector & stock rotation that’s helping to keep a bid under the major indices & other risk-on assets, including crypto.

If SPCX can solidly punch through that downtrend line, which I suspect she will (hopefully before the Big 4 tech co’s report this week, although I will most likely hold my starter position into those earnings, even if so unless T4 is hit before then) then she could rip to the next target(s) in very short order, IMO.

Regardless, definitely one to beta-adjust the position size down to account for the above-average gain & loss potential, not to mention it being a 110% counter-trend trade with scant evidence (so far) of a bottom or reversal.