And that “window dressing” could mean somewhat muted downside, but the fact that the mega-caps have gone up so much while other assets have lagged, that means that large portfolio managers who are mandated to keep a balanced book will need to cut exposure to those positions that have become too large in their accounts, while adding to exposures that have become too small.

If I saw your question earlier, I would have said that if SOXX goes up another 5% before a short entry is triggered via a breakdown then it would still be an untriggered trade setup & I might or might not revised the entry criteria or even just remove the setup if it no longer looked attractive.

However, SOXX has just triggered the 1st sell signal on a break & 60m close below the wedge with the next sell signals to come on a break below this yellow minor support level & then the 504.20ish support just below it so that makes it an “active” trade vs. a setup.

As the breakdown (so far) is far from impulsive & SOXX is only slightly below that minor TL, the breakdown could still fail but a breakdown is a breakdown until & unless it does fail. If it does, and SOXX climbs another 5%, that would still keep it within a reasonable loss allowance (better than a 2:1 R/R to the final target) but one might certainly opt to use a more aggressive stop. Also, the best option, IMO, for those that like this trade idea, is to take a starter position (1/3 – 1/2) here on the breakdown, bringing it to a full position when & only if SOXX solidly takes out 504.20. Here’s a zoomed in update of that 60m chart.

It will also help to see QQQ print a solid 60m below it’s comparable minor uptrend line/wedge (which is also just cracked & is currently trading slightly below) as well as SPY taking out it’s comparable 60m uptrend line, which it is still slightly above as I type.

Hey Jeff, I’m thinking differently.
I would think the money managers would want to either hold on to, or buy the big winners of this year ( like Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, & Netflix) to show their clientele how smart they were when they hand out their quarterly reports.
As for triple witching Fridays, they seem to have been pretty tame lately, ending up mostly flat.
Downside in the coming weeks…… hope you’re right, I’d like to see that.
Nasdaq has been up 12 out of the last 14 weeks… and only down 5 weeks this year.

Don’t take the trade until sell signal (break of the trendline). Then stop out above recent highs.

This is fine, but I like the videos, too.
The videos are usually more in depth.
But both are appreciated.

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