@rsotc , I see RTY is still above 1661 at this time, does that minimize the chances of a sell off ? Thank you in advance

Thank you @rsotc !! I went S at average cost of 3229 on ES and is now slightly in Loss but I think I can at least get out at 3224 or 3221 for small gain rather than fighting the trend too much !

A short on /ES here would be the epitome of a counter-trend trade although I believe a decent case can be made for a short on /ES, SPY, /NQ, QQQ, etc.. with the appropriate stops in place. As a counter-trend trade in a very resilient rally, the odds of it playing out are not great although quite often, the best time to sell or go short is when everyone else is buying.

To each their own: Shorting here would be considered an aggressive, counter-trend trade that runs a higher chance of being stopped out but the potential for relatively quick gains, should we get a sudden rush for the exits on a very crowded trade, helps to offset the below-average rate of success on the trade IMO.

Yes, I think a short on /RTY or IWM (TWM, TZA, etc.) here is still objective (/RTY at 1659.50 as I type) with a stop somewhat above. It might not have the best chance of playing out due to the resiliency of the current uptrend but the R/R seems favorable as /RTY may very well fall another 3% from current levels down to the 1610ish target. As such a 1% stop loss would provide a fairly attractive 3:1 R/R or you could use an even tighter stop, say 0.5%, for a 6:1 R/R or maybe only target the next support/target around 1624.30.

One other consideration is the fact that a much larger drop is certainly a possibility at this time based on both the technical posture of the market as well as some other factors such as extreme bullish sentiment, the $VIX near the bottom of it’s trading range, & more. As such, should a short trade entered around current levels start to pan out, in lieu of booking profits at either or both of those two near-term pullback targets, one could just trail down stops & let the position ride.

is this a Short opportunity ?

I’m leaning towards last night’s news-induced spike in crude being 100% faded & then some over the next week or so. Although the catalyst for the spike was news-induced (the bombing), it was also a technically-induced move with /CL breaking out above the minor downtrend line + 61.17 resistance level. Here’s my 60m chart.