Comments on: Rally Time?

By: TRW

TRW — Fri, 12 Jun 2020 05:52:21 +0000

Thanks for the analysis. The most useful thing you said was that you had reversed your index shorts to longs just before the end of day.

By: Araleia

Araleia — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 22:04:07 +0000

In reply to Action_Jackson. A lot of those FOMOs bet their stimulus checks. bought stocks and margin their accounts for more. If they think this is just pullback for newly formed bull market, they will buy the dip. Problems will come when the market keeps dropping and they run out of money for their margin calls. The sell everything mode in March will happen again, and this time will be worse than the last, and they will be in debt for years to come.

By: aturchin

aturchin — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 21:19:45 +0000

@rsotc, any thoughts on ES bounce targets. Or advice on how you take profits/reverse in real time? thanks, andrew

By: wilhud

wilhud — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 20:20:35 +0000

Awesome commentary today Randy and holding the line when everyone was losing their heads. Wow what a day.

2020 is definitely one for the history books, crazy on so many levels.

By: Ken

Ken — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 20:13:27 +0000

In reply to rsotc. Hi Randy, SPY closed below 301 and below the 302.5 support, so does this mean that we will see 295 soon, perhaps tomorrow?

By: becky

becky — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 20:12:54 +0000

In reply to rsotc. Unacceptable man, expected the market wrap 5 minutes before the close so I could coordinate my moves for tomorrow. J/k I sit tight, hoping for a bounce to re-enter shorts. What a day.

By: Action_Jackson

Action_Jackson — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 20:03:01 +0000

Randy, I’m guessing if the rally was fueled by all the newbie retail investors they are freaking out right about now as AAPL has fallen 5%. This may be a sock to them. I would bet most of them will take profits. Maybe the bounce will not happen. You have to agree this market doesn’t act normal!

Thanks for the TVIX trade. I stopped out and then got back in lower for wash.

By: Tom123

Tom123 — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 20:00:37 +0000

Thank You could you also update /CL in your market wrap for today?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:53:25 +0000

In reply to crlists13. I plan to. Market wrap should be posted between 5-6 pm today

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:52:31 +0000

IWM has fallen 10% in the past 2 sessions to a very solid support level where a bounce or at least a consolidation is likely

By: crlists13

crlists13 — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:46:35 +0000

@rsotc Maybe on next video, would you talk about what to expect for swing/trend traders? What this break down means for next a few months?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:45:01 +0000

19 min to go until the close & all indexes still holding support. My expectation is for at least 1-2% rally before the close today (or maybe continuing in the AH/evening session). My plan is to trail up stops & either leave stops in place on the index futures to take home of close them out later today, depending on if & where we rally to. No hard stops for now, reading the tape for the time being plus, the next big support is only about 2% below.

By: FooHawk

FooHawk — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:37:28 +0000

In reply to rsotc. That is unacceptable!! ???

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:25:48 +0000

FYI- I won’t be able to post a market wrap until shortly after 5pm today.

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 19:24:04 +0000

Keep in mind those are just the 60-minute charts above. Part of my reasoning for covering shorts & reversing to longs for a bounce is the fact that SPY has also just hit that 302.50 price support from my daily chart as well as a pullback to kiss the 200-day SMA. Maybe the market continues to fall into the close today & that will be the case if the sellers overwhelm the buyers but a 5%+ drop that takes the S&P 500 back for a test of the 200-day SMA, as well as price support, is likely to draw in at least some dip buyers. Stocks move up & down based on supply & demand: More buyers than sellers & price rise; more sellers than buyers & they fall. Should the dip buyer get overrun at the 200-day SMA, the next key support on the daily chart comes in at the 200-day EMA & (roughly) aligning price support around 295, which is the top of the April-May trading range on SPY. Yellow arrow shows my preferred scenario (tradable bounce off this support) with the white arrows (bounce off 295support/200-day EMA), about 2% below, as my alternative scenario. If they park the SPY here at the close, without a meaningful bounce today, we could still bounce tomorrow is this support holds.