Comments on: QQQ & US Equity Market Outlook (video)

By: dan123

dan123 — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 15:19:21 +0000

Thank you Randy great recap

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 12:36:48 +0000

In reply to jameske. A couple of thing to note on that: 1) IWM fell over 27% from its peak highs (mid 2015) while QQQ only dropped about 18% off its peak high put in back in early Nov & early Dec (double-top), hence, IWM had more catching up to do on this recent/previous rally. 2) Also note that IWM, as strong as it seems lately, only retraced just shy of the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the move off the highs to the Feb lows while QQQ managed a considerable stronger 78.6% (also a key Fib level) retracement of the move down from its 2015 highs. Therefore, as strong as IWM might appear, it is still considerably more below its 2015 peak than QQQ & by nearly all metrics that I follow, still in a primary downtrend/bear market, having already well exceeded the conventional definition of a bear market (20%+ drop).

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 12:28:03 +0000

In reply to pangblood. pangblood- Personally, I am also short IWM & believe that as it has (so far) held up recently, as a higher beta index (vs. the SPX), it will likely fall more than the broad market if my expectation for a correction in US equities plays out.

By: snp

snp — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 06:34:07 +0000

also if we are in a sector rotation, smart money goes to work on the most underperformed sector if they are still bullish. iwm under its monthly 20 ma still so least overbought? I like the point above from jameske re the diversity of the index. whats the biggest stock in the Russell? pbyi. puma. see my post about 116 as a possible shorting level and why. larger time frames trump smaller ones and monthly says 116 ish.

By: snp

snp — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 04:56:32 +0000

consider the cot reports. still more traders long iwm than any other index. smart money knows something we don’t.

By: Omdavis21

Omdavis21 — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 00:41:05 +0000

In reply to jameske. I think that's a plausible scenario. looks to me like the leaders from the last market may not be the leaders of this market.

By: jameske

jameske — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 20:25:59 +0000

None of that helps me trade any better at the moment. Short or long, short or Long? My logic circuits are going to break.

By: jameske

jameske — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 20:22:21 +0000

I am guessing here. Perhaps a difference in the weighting of its components. If the Qs are significantly heavier in some stocks rather than others then bad news from the higher weighted companies cause a different reaction than IWM if it is more equally weighted. Conversely one might expect the best companies to hold up the Qs longer if in tighter market conditions. Though could just be random and it will self correct in the long run.

By: pangblood

pangblood — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 19:34:17 +0000

Randy, do you have any thoughts as to why IWM is holding up so much? isn’t the norm for IWM to have larger swings than QQQ and SPY? Does this make it a better (or worse) candidate for shorting?