Nobody bats .1000 but the key is to keep your losses small & let your winners run. Whereas as a couple of weeks ago, I was looking for a ~5% or so pullback followed by another thrust to new (2019, not 2018) highs, at this point, I am increasingly leaning towards the end of this rally off the Dec 24th lows, whenever it comes, as being THE end with the market going on to take out the Dec 24th lows. Not 100% on that scenario yet but certainly open to it.

For the official trades, like this one, I like to keep the entry criteria relatively simple but as with any breakout, the odds that it will stick are increased if the breakout occurs on 1.5x or better average volume (although I find that to hold true more so with long-side/bullish breakouts than short-side/bearish breakdowns) as well as waiting for a candlestick close below the support or resistance level that triggers the breakout, in this case a 60-minute candle close below those trendlines in both /NQ & /ES.

The downside to waiting for a 60-minute or in the case of trading off a daily chart, a daily close below the breakpoint for the trade, is that your entry price might be a lot less favorable if the stock or ETF starts to move impulsively after the breakout & in some cases, by the time you wait for a candlestick close above or below, you might not even have an objective entry anymore if the stock has moved too far away from the entry trigger relative to the price target.

There are a lot of moving parts in trading and it is nearly impossible to list out all the variables that might come into play after a breakout is triggered so but with both /ES & /NQ bouncing off those trendlines at the same time shorting after the open of the regular session today, if/when one breaks down the other will likely follow suit. As of now, QQQ is still trading above that previous LOD & if it rallies high enough, I might revise the entry to short it at higher levels (i.e.- a better price) in anticipation of a breakdown.