Thank you. I suspected as much.

No, I don’t use the old 60/40 rule anymore. I look at each of the major asset classes (stocks, bonds, and cash) on their own technicals so if both stocks & bonds appear headed lower, as they were since the beginning of this year, I’ll just go to all cash, as I did.

I’ll game the bear market rallies that I have a high degree of confidence in, such as the first two we had earlier this yr but I haven’t moved any $$ into stock funds at this time, even though there is a decent case for another bear market rally (I am still leaning towards another leg down first).

Scaling into bonds via bi-weekly contributions with a decent position already transferred into & may take that as high as 80% or so, once $TYX & $TNX break down below the initial uptrend lines although how much I add to bond will depend largely on how much dry powder I decide to put into equities, if any, around that time.

A perfect kiss of my bounce target (trendline + 11081.75 R level) followed by the reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat.

A while back on a bond vid you mentioned you are moving retirement $ back into bonds in your wife standard accts. I have a good bit of that to deal with as well. How do you manage that. Do you divide up the entire acct and move it all into the asset class you see the most potential eventual to near 100%, or do you consider a 40% bonds 60% stocks kind of acct. moving each in and out of cash when appropriate?

Getting a little more granular, here’s my 10m of /NQ with a small bullish falling wedge as /NQ also comes back for another backtest of that downtrend line (support) on the 60m chart I just posted for you. A solid break above the wedge would also be a recovery back above the 11017 broken support (i.e.- whipsaw). Nice setup for a quick bounce trade. I just reversed: covered /NQ short & went long 1/2 position, will add if/when wedge & 11017 are taken out.

My favorite swing trading time frame, /NQ 60-minute chart, below. Not much support level before the previous (mid-June) & more recent bear market lows. A failure back down below the downtrend line we’ve been testing recently would be the first “rut-row” momentum for the bullish case with a solid break below the 10820ish support with just the recent bear market low just below that (which is also the more significant T3 bear market swing target & key support on my QQQ weekly chart.

Correct, I favor the bearish scenario (another big leg down) at this time but still very much open to the potential for a nice bear market rally & will adjust my positioning accordingly depending on which scenario begins to emerge as the most likely one in the coming days to weeks.

You’re right about that but they trotted somebody out today from the fed and said they have room to keep raising Which is what started the bull rolling down hill today.

Which scenario do you favor at this time it sounds as though the lower one. And would that put T4 back in contention.

All excellent points, for sure. Bottom line is I can make a pretty decent case for a double-digit bear market rally, a case which would begin to firm up with each tick above the recent highs, while I can also make a pretty solid case for another double-digit leg down to start soon as well, one that builds rapidly with each tick below the recent lows

The old me, years ago, would have probably only been making one case or the other & posting the reasons to support it while ignoring or not mentioning the reasons against it. The longer I trade, the better I become at recognizing when to be aggressively long or short a swing or trend position in the market (or whatever else I’m trading) and when to pull back the reins, switch from swing/trend trade mode to either cash or active trading mode (like recently) and wait patiently for the next clearly favorable R/R to get long or short on swing/trend positions.

Next week with the big FAAMG earnings & up until the FOMC meeting the following Wed should be all the market needs in order to decide which way it wants to go next.

Just some thoughts. Keep up the great work, its been pretty darn spot on.