Yes, the technicals look good for the bulls. And the averages and the top 10 stocks are getting farther and farther above their 200 day MA. I don’t think this market will go down until they squeeze out a LOT more of the bears.

You’re not imagining.. May be playing out right now

I would love to see that. But I don’t the FED has a spine. They’re getting too much pressure to slow down the hikes. My bet is that they pause at 5.25, but I’m wrong a lot.
I agree 100% that inflation really isn’t coming down that fast. Obviously those stuffed shirts don’t ever go to the grocery store to buy anything.

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/

I don’t see any major news, its just technicals i think. It could explode 30% in one day. I have lost too much in NATGAS and I will never play this UNG ever no matter how good RR is!!!

Inflation really isn’t coming down a whole lot based on the Fed’s Core PCE metric. My theory is they have their “thumb on the scale” for this data because virtually every other metric shows inflation dropping pretty rapidly. As long as Core PCE hangs around, that will give Powell the green light to threaten taking rates higher. Doesn’t mean that he will do it but he isn’t going to soften his tone until Core PCE drops below 3.5% or so.

I agree that the broad-based markets are still trading well below the all time highs. But if we did keep rallying, I think that would cause the Fed to start pushing rates toward 6%.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905

Yes, the FED looks at the stock market, but I think they care more about inflation, and inflation is slowly coming down. Commodities have been coming straight down for over a year.
The FED will raise by 25 again next week. No surprises, but the market will do the usual yo-yo after they announce, then settle down to about where it was before.
They may raise it once more in June and get it to 5.25, then wait and see what happens.
The market isn’t exuberant. The S&P is still 14% off it’s all time high.

The higher the market goes, the higher the Fed is going to take interest rates. The last thing the Fed wants is the market rallying which contributes to inflation sticking around. That’s the base case until Powell signals otherwise.