randy,
thanks. hedging / diversification is always a good idea

Will cover in a video today but really no change in the technical posture nor my outlook since the last update on the metals & miners last week.

Not to sound facetious but anything is possible, even a late 1999ish-style blow off top. However, based on my analysis, including but not limited to the differences in both the technicals (charts) and fundamentals now & then, I put the odds of a similar blow-off top very low.

My expectation of a marginal & still divergent high which is followed by a failed breakout & next leg down to my longer-term targets on the weekly charts is still very much my preferred scenario.

As always, I will have my bets spread via position diversification (various stocks & sectors both long & short) as well as asset allocation (stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, crypto, etc..) so if wrong on any one single position (e.g.- short one or long the other) hopefully the others offset it.

This week (abbreviated trading week due to Independence Day) coupled with the fact we are at what I like to call the peak summer doldrums week (just above everybody on vaca or in vaca mode) is usually plagued with whipsaws/false breakouts & often some pretty decent price swings due to the low volume.

Best to take breakouts with a grain of salt and/or keep trading activity and/or position sizes light until most of the players step back onto the field next week.

correct, but QQQ is making new highs. Randy’s analysis based on one or two indicators no longer works. He keeps harping about the short side, while traders enjoy wins on the long side.

This tariff situation hasn’t passed. We have been very creative in avoiding tariffs and export restrictions.My suppliers are starting to ask me for tariff relief. My customer has said that they will require tons of information (that we don’t have) to consider paying additional tariffs rebates. Some of our suppliers are threatening to not ship. All of this affects the bottom line.

This is slowly working through the economy, These record government receipts are coming either directly from company profits or the American consumer.
Good luck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emcCKrcAqgA

I am no expert but the Covid rally was due $6T in government spending and a Fed printed $3.3T in 2020 alone. That amount of money will move markets.

I have been your member for several years now. I respect your judgment.

After Covid crash, market did a complete V recovery in about 3 months (just like now) but then it did not stop there. It rallied for another 18 months (until January 2022) and then started rolling over… That is one of the biggest rallies I missed

So, my question is, are we witnessing something like this now? are we at the danger of missing another mind blowing rally that could go on for a year?

What is the difference between the technical then and now?

Obviously the macro conditions were different then because Fed printed money like hell then… Powell says he is going to cut twice this year…

What is different this time? (or is it?)

Looking for interesting analysis from you!

Thanks!