Also, keep in mind that recessions typical come after the yield curve “un-inverts” (following the inversion) & it sure seems to be headed that way. Also remember that the NBER typically declares a recession long after it has started (and at times, even after it has already ended) due to constant after-the-fact downward revisions to economic indicators once the economy has rolled over. Finally, one more important fact is that the stock market often sees out 6-9 months ahead of the economy (rolls over before the economy turns down & bottoms before the recessions end)

I am always sharing plenty of long trade ideas along with shorts so pass on what doesn’t align with your outlook & expectation for a particular index, sector, commodity, or other security such as bonds and trade what aligns with your outlook/expectations.

Yes because after all these years, the Fed has finally figured out how to prevent any & all future recessions. Universities around the world are re-writing the textbooks & curriculum for Economics course as the business cycle (expansions followed by recessions) no longer exists….lol. But seriously, the Fed has created excessive risk taking, moral hazard, & the largest debt bubble in history that cannot possibly end well. Remember, Ponzi schemes can’t be tapered.

Yes, I have a small (starter) short position of SOXX in one of my longer-term accounts & plan to add to that when SOXX breaks below the 60m bearish rising wedge that I covered in yesterday’s video.

I also plan to start adding some of the individual semis that I covered in last months video that was dedicated solely to the long-term outlook for the semis: https://rightsideofthechart.com/semiconductor-sector-analysis-trade-ideas-12-15-23/

For long-term/trend trades with the deeper targets to be hit in 2024 and/or 2025. All detailed in this video from last month: https://rightsideofthechart.com/semiconductor-sector-analysis-trade-ideas-12-15-23/

I also covered the semis in yesterday’s video, including the short/near-term outlook in which I highlighted the 60m rising wedge that SOXX was testing the bottom of & stated that it could easily make one more thrust up inside the wedge before breaking down, which it has today. Next sell signal will come on a solid break below that wedge (uptrend line).

I remember. Got beat up on that one….I do think it will happen though, might not be this year, but when the fed gets trapped between inflation and a failing economy the conditions will be ripe for it.

I’m not going to lie … this has all the earmarks of getting real ugly … how far above the ATH (probably in just a few moments 8:32 am PST) does this spike become an official Bull mauling? The only thing is there is no momentum in volume … yet!

Semis are exploding and you said in the beginning of the Year in Jan 2nd that you are shorting Semis.

What’s the status on that?

Catching the proverbial falling knife has not worked for me for the last year.
The Euro is down again, and the rate on the 10 year is up and the market keeps going up. What is the catalyst to make it drop ????

NVDA should hit 1000 this year.

Amazing….I missed it too.

AMD, TSM and NVDA is exploding yet again!

Very True!

Oh dang, I’m jealous! I missed that jump into shorts just before the gap up move! I usually hit those with an unusual consistency.

Can you go over Semis please?