Also, keep in mind that recessions typical come after the yield curve “un-inverts” (following the inversion) & it sure seems to be headed that way. Also remember that the NBER typically declares a recession long after it has started (and at times, even after it has already ended) due to constant after-the-fact downward revisions to economic indicators once the economy has rolled over. Finally, one more important fact is that the stock market often sees out 6-9 months ahead of the economy (rolls over before the economy turns down & bottoms before the recessions end)

I am always sharing plenty of long trade ideas along with shorts so pass on what doesn’t align with your outlook & expectation for a particular index, sector, commodity, or other security such as bonds and trade what aligns with your outlook/expectations.

Yes because after all these years, the Fed has finally figured out how to prevent any & all future recessions. Universities around the world are re-writing the textbooks & curriculum for Economics course as the business cycle (expansions followed by recessions) no longer exists….lol. But seriously, the Fed has created excessive risk taking, moral hazard, & the largest debt bubble in history that cannot possibly end well. Remember, Ponzi schemes can’t be tapered.

Yes, I have a small (starter) short position of SOXX in one of my longer-term accounts & plan to add to that when SOXX breaks below the 60m bearish rising wedge that I covered in yesterday’s video.

I also plan to start adding some of the individual semis that I covered in last months video that was dedicated solely to the long-term outlook for the semis: https://rightsideofthechart.com/semiconductor-sector-analysis-trade-ideas-12-15-23/

For long-term/trend trades with the deeper targets to be hit in 2024 and/or 2025. All detailed in this video from last month: https://rightsideofthechart.com/semiconductor-sector-analysis-trade-ideas-12-15-23/

I also covered the semis in yesterday’s video, including the short/near-term outlook in which I highlighted the 60m rising wedge that SOXX was testing the bottom of & stated that it could easily make one more thrust up inside the wedge before breaking down, which it has today. Next sell signal will come on a solid break below that wedge (uptrend line).