You’re right. They need to at least stick to raising rates while they can; they’re already back into full-blown QE. I just read that the Fed balance sheet has suddenly expanded by $300billion since last week’s banking crisis began.

If they only go a quarter then they lose all credibility if they ever had any. I think the whole idea of a fed is a joke. It’s just a way for the government to spend way more money than they have. There will be a total collapse date but not yet.. Probably the reset that they have planned.

Yep, you are correct. It was called the Haynes bottom at CNBC. Thank you for responding it wasn’t a challenge Just a question.

A steadfast Fed willing to raise 50bps “should” be on the table, as the economy is still strong, inflation is still high, and the banking problems may have been largely averted with the Fed’s BTFP and with private institutions showing willingness to stop the bank bleeding by depositing money into First Republic Bank as a start. A hawkish Fed really could be the surprise that bears need to get QQQ lower.

With that being said, I really think 25bp is baked in the cake, at least as of now.

Funny, as I was just thinking the more the stock market rallies between now & next Wed, the more likely the Fed is to go +50bp as they won’t be as worried about a stock market crash.

My guess is just like Q4 2018, between now & 2pm next Wed, the market will throw a hissy-fit to make sure the Fed knows they don’t want any hike at all, especially a 1/2 pt.

The banks were technically bailed out on Oct 3, 2008 with the creation of TARP, which is similar to the backstop they just gave the regional banks this week. However, your statement, “The market did nothing but go up after They saved the banks in 2008.” is very much incorrect as although that did trigger a sharp bear market rally, that rally was short-lived, with the $SPX peaking on Oct 14th & then plunging another 36% lower over the next 4 months into the early March end of the bear market. That’s because, despite backstopping the banks, the wheels were already well in motion for the recession, as I believe they are at this time, albeit in only in the very early or even pre-recession stages.

I’ve also stated repeatly that I believe it would be unwise to try and compare where we are in the stages of this bear market & recession compared to any other period for the past half-century as the underlying macro factors are different.

Come to think of that you’re almost always right on short medium and long term.