maybe not! happy to “eat my hat” especially when it pays!

I only call ’em as I see ’em. Also, make sure to note how the arrows are drawn. E.g.- A down arrow that starts just below a trendline or price support level means that the downside scenario is contingent on that support level being taken out. No breakdown, no drop to the target(s) the arrows lead down to.

$NDX has a much higher weighting of the FAAMG+T stocks than the S&P 500. As such, the broad market will only go so far without the NDX. Maybe big tech is only taking a breather & will play catch up soon but as of now, I can still make clearly bearish cases on at least 2 of those top 6 holdings (AAPL & TSLA) so either they will snap back soon & undo their recent technical damage or we’ll start to see some of the other break down, such as MSFT falling back into the recent multi-month trading range & then taking out the uptrend line just below that. Still anyone’s game here (bulls or bears) so waiting patiently to see how the charts play out before adding to or closing any index shorts.

Sure. XOP is trading slightly above the big 80.35 resistance level on what will likely prove to be a momentum-fueled overshoot with a reversal soon & sell signal to come if & when XOP moves solidly back below the 80.35 level as well as the minor uptrend line on the chart below. I also posted this 60m chart of /CL crude futures in the post published shortly after the open today. XOP will trade nearly lockstep with crude so if/when we /CL breaks below this minor uptrend line & goes on to drop to the targets below, that will almost certainly take XOP down (and DRIP up) with it.

Fundamentally, the recent unusually sharp increase in the yield curve (short-term rates staying flat while intermediate & L/T rates soar) has been a tremendous boon to the banks as their spreads have increased sharply (what they loan $ out for vs. what they pay depositors to give them that $ to lend).
Technically, if my correction scenario in the FAAMG+T’s stocks & ultimately the broad market continues to pan out (so far the former has been), then I would suspect that XLF will break down below this trendline/rising wedge & at minimum, backtest the big 31.25 breakout level (now support). Again, that depends largely, although not exclusively, on the broad market rolling over soon.

sold off 1/2 my UVXY position at today’s open for a real small win, thats about all we’re gonna get in this “hard to kill a bull market” for a while, wish i sold the other half as well and moved on, timing is not right as UVXY continually grinds lower in the face of this price action ….someday it will pop big and stick for more than an hour, but not this week.