I believe the markets (i.e.- what’s in the charts) can do a much better job of predicting how geo-political events will play out than you or I can. As such, I let the charts dictate how I trade. Nothing wrong with someone lightening up on their positions or even going flat if they are concerned about being caught on the wrong side of a big market-moving event but the way I see the Russia/Ukraine thing (take it FWIW) is:

A) It is well telegraphed & the market has had plenty of time to factor it in, at least to a greater or lesser extent. The stock market can absorb a lot of bad news, it just doesn’t like surprises. That’s not to say a Russian attack on Ukraine is fully priced in, as I would almost guarantee a big drop in the market if they did. Just saying that the powers to be (and smart money), has already factored in the likelihood (or not) of an invasion.

B) Not to stir the political pot, as I try to keep those opinions off the site unless something political directly relates to or will likely impact trading & the markets. However, with Biden’s approval ratings in the gutter & the Dems very concerned about taking a beating in the mid-terms, I wouldn’t be surprised if the WH overstated the actual risk of Russia invading Ukraine while POTUS has been talking the tough talk in an attempt to gain back some credibility after a disastrous first year with the Afghanistan withdrawals & everything else that seems to have been a flop. Now, if Russia doesn’t invade, then Biden can (and will likely) take credit for cowing them down with his ‘stern threats’.

Maybe the intel of a “likely & imminent attack” was accurate, maybe not but historically, world leaders, including former POTUS’s, have been known to inflame or start a military conflict to distract the masses from their sagging ratings. As such, I have been skeptical of just how real the risk of a Russian attack has been but again, who knows? Certainly not me so I just let the charts be my guide.

Just saw this but I think you can short this Ukraine-induced pop into R1 (and R2, if it happens to get there).

I have my candlesticks color set to “Net Change” so they will be red when trading negative & green when positive (compared to the previous candlestick close).

https://i.imgur.com/LQlwP2z.png

I played the potential pullback by buying ZSL

https://i.imgur.com/d8dOXJn.png

It looks like the market will open with my position up 4% but that is mostly because Russia pulled some troops back from the Ukrainian border. Russia could easily bring troops back and blow up the trade and the overall market rally that will happen today.