Thank you

I’ll continue to do frequent, even daily updates on the stock market as I usually do, especially when things are moving fast in either direction (or both directions, as over the past few weeks).

What we’re seeing is 100% a relief/short-covering rally from the drop in crude, which, IMHO, is the market pricing in a near-100% chance that it is A) permanent & B) likely to bring crude even lower.

Yes, there is also the recent bullish technical development of both SPY & QQQ regaining the multi-month trading ranges, following the recent clear breakdown below them (where QQQ hit & reversed off T2 on the daily chart). That was then followed by a solid recovery back above the (also recently taken out) 200-day moving averages.

Now, we have a breakout above the trading ranges, fueled primarily, if not exclusively, by the perception that the worst is over in the Middle East AND that crude will remain below $90.

That could very well prove to be the case but if not (and I don’t think it will be for very long), the market will have to reprice in the impact of high energy prices & depending on how fast & far crude climbs again (assuming it does) that could be a very hard & fast repricing of risk & higher-for-longer energy prices, especially with most of the short interest & bearish sentiment cleared out now.

Stay nimble & diversified (or keep things light/most cash, if unsure what to do) & watch crude closely as it pretty much fell to where I expected to following the recent divergent high & sell signals off the highs.

BTW- You can see each calendar year (along with the clusters of quarterly month periods) listed on the bottom of that weekly chart, just as I always make sure to also include the dates on the bottom of all my charts (daily, intraday, monthly, etc..)

No, that 2nd chart of PGR in the post above is a weekly chart that spans back to 2012. It shows the long-term trendline that starts off the 2016 lows.

I do think PGR will break below that trendline sooner or later & most likely, this year. However, support is support until & unless broken, so I think a case can be made to buy the stock in this first pullback to that long-term uptrend line since July ’23 with stops somewhat below it, ideally on a solid weekly (end of Friday) close below it.

I shared my thoughts in both the post on NFLX published before the market opened today, as well as in the video I posted today. I’m glad to share my thoughts here, just wanted to point that out in case you missed either of those updates.

NFLX hit the first price target that I highlighted when I covered it as a short trade idea in the video posted Monday of this week (today’s first post has a link that will open at the start of the coverage of NFLX). The stock gapped down to my 1st price target today & has sat there like a wet bag of sand so far today.

My preference was (and still is) to book the quick profits and wait for an objective re-entry point to swing down to the next target (I modified T2 in the post earlier today).

If this breakout on the broad market holds & gets built upon into next week, I think NLFX will likely bounce, thereby providing a more favorable level to re-short it. However, should the breakout fail, which I still think has a decent chance of happening within the next week or so, then NFLX may not bounce. In that case, a solid break below today’s lows will most likely open the door to T2 & offer an objective re-entry or new short entry (see either Monday’s or today’s video for my longer-term outlook & analysis of NFLX on the weekly chart).

Right now, best to let the dust settle following the big post-earnings drop to support/T1 & see how the stock (and the stock market) trades next week before doing anything more than booking profits on any short taken into earnings.