up to 363 now, getting close to 100pts up after randy opened this trade. guess he’s holding short still since no updates showing covered and closed this trade

Awesome! Thanks!

NVDA & the semis may very well hold up until at least Friday, as the King of the semis (INTC) reports Thursday after the market close. I just wanted to get the setup out in advance of a breakdown, in case we get one soon & in case the semis turn quickly.

On the contrary, SHOP is pricing in the COVID impact, which certainly benefits that particular company. Shopify is a one-stop online e-commerce platform so if you run a store selling widgets & suddenly everyone is afraid to come into your store to buy the widgets (or can’t, due to stay-at-home orders), you go to Shopify, open an account, which includes a turn-key website, and start selling your widgets that way.

Yes, online retailing is & has been cannibalizing brick & mortar retail for years now with no end in sight to that trend. However, many brick & mortar retailers such as WMT, HD, BBY, etc.. have adapted by putting a lot of effort (and money) into their e-commerce platforms (walmart.com, homedepot.com, bestbuy.com, etc..).

I think COVID will prove to be the nail in the coffin for many, smaller brick & mortar retailers that don’t have the scale and/or resources to aggressively compete with an online platform but some of those that have suddenly realized they don’t have a choice are flocking to companies like SPOT. FWIW, I don’t have a strong read on the charts of SHOP although I can say that there are big divergences building on the daily & weekly charts, indicating that once this rally runs out of steam, the ensuing trend reversal could be quite larger.

Any marginal new high soon on AMD would simply be an extension of the smaller, previous divergence which was followed by a 38% drop.

The fact the media has been talking up the company big all year makes the long-term bearish case even more compelling & likely to play out. I’d rarely seen a stock with more one-sided bullishness & buy ratings across the board than BA (Boeing) when it was trading at all-time highs back in Feb 2019, when I first started highlighting that a major bear market in the stock was priced into the charts. Fast-forward 13-months later & that former Darling of Wall Street & every fund manager’s favorite had plunged 80% after peaking just a couple of weeks after that first weekly chart:

https://rightsideofthechart.com/ba-boeing-the-anatomy-of-a-top/

The charts are not always right in predicting where a stock is headed, when clearly bullish or bearish, but more often than not, they are. No guarantees that the charts, or at least my interpretation of them, are telling us that the next 30-50%+ move in NVDA & AMD will be down before up but I’d put the odds are high to very high, regardless of whether the next 10% or so in those stocks is up or down.

Correct, typo fixed. The support level that the entry trigger of a break below 282.70 is at 284.80, as shown on the first (60-minute) chart. In order to help minimize the chance of entering the trade on a whipsaw dip & recovered below the wedge and/or the 282.80 support, I set the entry a couple of points below, for a margin of error.

Even with that margin of error, the idea entry will be on an impulsive break below both the wedge and the 284.80 support (big red 60-minute candle on increased volume). Additional confirmation would come if the sector (SOXX, SMH, XSD, etc..) is also trading lower if/when NVDA breaks down. Of course, INTC earnings later this week also have the potential to make or break this potential trade setup. Thanks for pointing out the typo.