Comments on: /NQ & QQQ Nasdaq 100 At Resistance 3-30-23

By: Ken

Ken — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 20:39:33 +0000

In reply to rsotc.

We also need to consider that April tends to be a good month for gains in the equities market…

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-best-months-for-stock-market-gains/

By: rsotc

rsotc — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 17:52:38 +0000

In reply to MichelMayer. Yes and we need the majority of bears to capitulate as that is pretty much a necessity if we're going to get another major leg down that takes out the Oct lows. Not sure if the recent rally has cleared out enough bearish sentiment for that to happen yet or not but I think the next week might give us some more clarity.

By: MichelMayer

MichelMayer — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 17:08:39 +0000

That market is realy hard to trade for shorters. Everybody was thinking that the bulls would capitulate and it is exactly the opposite, the bearish are capitulating and the fed is about to stop its interest rise and that will give more fuel to the bulls. I think the market will only drop on bad earnings reports.

By: thebeagle55

thebeagle55 — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 16:16:50 +0000

if a bull mkt has indeed started back in october 2022 ..a big if
for sure… neg divergence does not have the same effect in bull
markets as it does in bear markets.. that is a fact based on years
of research.. so for all the bears out there be careful..

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 16:04:14 +0000

In reply to KevinK. The painful part for anyone jumping off those cliffs is that those ETFs will reverse split into perpituity, so the fall last forever without ever hitting the ground. Oh, and add UNG to the list. Even non-leveraged ETFs can only lose forever when based on rolling futures contracts.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 15:57:09 +0000

SOXS, SSG, and BOIL all hitting all time lows today.

Can they go lower…..yes.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 15:56:31 +0000

With quarter-end positioning, I think the move higher in the things that worked this quarter (QQQ, SOX, FAAMNG) are being exacerbated. Perhaps a trade worth trying come Monday might be a pairs trade in IWM/QQQ for a reversion to the mean. It can be played with futures or micro-futures at a ratio of 3:1, or if playing with the ETFs a ratio of 9:5.

By: pbwilli37

pbwilli37 — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 15:45:03 +0000

My thoughts are that they are trying to close the week and the month and the quarter with positive closings and after Friday close or possably Monday sometime we will see a change and possably big directional change. It is hard to watch the decay in the portfolio go down while waiting and I second guess myself and ask why did I not see this and just wait untill the end of the day friday to go short.
I know that if we feel this is the direction and have conviction we should buy the gap ups and add to the short positions but I have a hard time with that.

By: JimG

JimG — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 15:42:20 +0000

I added into this mornings surge. Spy hitting expected move.. looking for at least a retrace if not reversal here. Fixed risk except for the Soxs trade. Soxs was added to on the tag of expected move in semis.

By: KevinK

KevinK — Thu, 30 Mar 2023 15:04:53 +0000

Trade0039, you asked what I think, so here goes….

I think the market is staging a pretty good rally that’ll make the shorts cry uncle, and last about a month..
When the shorts finally give up, and everybody starts to go long, the market will start to crater.
I’m going to start shorting in about a month when this rally starts to peter out.
That’s my opinion….Don’t go by me, though, I lost a bundle in 2022.