I hear you 100% regarding trading with instinct and feel. That’s a big part of my game as well (retail trader positioning, stop raids, traps, market maker moves, etc). I’ve been completely off my game the past five days in that department. Today was one of those days where I had to think for 2-3 hours to regroup. I guess like you said, there are good and bad stretches when trading instinct / feel.

Thanks for touching on the divergences part. I assumed that played into the instinct game. The call this time around was so spot-on that I spent a good chunk of time combing through the charts to see what I missed. From a technical perspective, I couldn’t find much, which is why I asked if you were trading on “feel”.

On the macro front, I see mostly inverse signals – things appear to be deteriorating. That’s why I wanted to throw some questions out to you because there aren’t many things confirming these moves.

I try to catch your videos. I know there is always something more on your mind that’s worth a deeper explanation. Sometimes I agree with it, sometimes I don’t. Either way, it’s always good to hear someone else’s perspective and you always cite the justification / logic for your reasoning.

We’ll see what happens now that options expiration and the VIX expiration are behind us. Personally, I can’t ignore what bonds are saying. They generally speak the truth with stocks lagging behind. Credit spreads, the Eurodollar curve, National Financial Conditions Index, 5-year constant real yield, etc. aren’t showing any signs of letting up yet. I have to trust those at the moment, but will be keeping an open to mind to upside in the intermediate-term since you feel pretty strongly about that. Of course, perspectives could change for either one of us as things unfold.

Appreciate the detailed response, Randy. ?

Might sound a bit corny but when I’m on my game, as fortunately I have been for the most part so far all year, I see what’s most likely going to happen before it actually happens & unlike most traders who stick to rigid rules & trade the charts in a robotic fashion, I’ll choose to ignore certain technical developments (i.e.- breakouts, divergences, etc..) that I suspect will prove to be whipsaws or false signals while trading others, even positioning before many of those developments actually “develop” in anticipating that the most likely will. So basically, yes: I a lot of my trading is guided by feel or instinct, which stems from years of experience. Also keep in mind that sometimes I’m off my game for weeks or even months at a time on the market or a particular commodity, sector, etc.. so don’t ever put too much faith ($$) into any one trade idea that I’m sharing.

I do my best to highlight the most significant developments that I see on the charts, including those that contradict or are not in alignment with my current outlook on a particular trade. I also do my best to highlight the key support & resistance levels which are likely to come into play, including how I would game a particular trade if I was on the other side of it (i.e.- If I’m bullish, I often state how one bearish on the same position might want to manage the trade).

Regarding the “not understanding why you stayed long through all of those negative divergences, and why is most recent divergent high is different than the previous ones – enough for you to swing back short” thing, I’ve spent countless hours since pivoting from short/bearish to long/bullish on the June 16th low explaning the various reasons (both technically/charts & fundamentally/economy) as to why the persistent bullish outlook. Way too many variables & developments to mention here in writing.

Don’t read too much into today’s flip from long to short at these targeting in QQQ as I’m every bit as bullish in the intermediate-term (weeks to months) today as I’ve been recently, just sticking with my trading plan which was to book profits on swing longs in my active trading account when these targets were hit & try to game a quick pullback & then recycle back into a net long swing/trend position on /NQ & /RTY. Part of the reason for reversing is that if my read on the market is correct, this is just about where the masses (retail traders & pros alike) have hit that point of recognition that maybe the sky really isn’t falling & they should cover their shorts & start going long (my paradigm shift theory). Mr. Market usually doesn’t let the masses all get it right around the same time so a shakeout move here (with a hard fade of today’s rally) would be ideal for the longer-term (weeks to months) bullish case IMO.

Not seeing anything macro pointing to a paradigm shift either. All I see are ES/NQ breakouts today and yesterday while the yield curve inverts further, and other macro indicators confirming more downside to come. Simply baffled.