Thanks. the early change in trend is always difficult to catch. we will have to take it by each day.

To answer the 2nd part of your question, I laid out some suggested stops in one of the recent (last week’s) videos: A tight stop just above the recent high in QQQ (and now that it’s already fallen 3%, I’d say one that shorted around that high could lower to entry for a tight stop & assuring at least a breakeven).

Those sharing my outlook that QQQ is likely heading down at least 40% from here towards the 235 level sometime in 2023 & potentially lower that are building (scaling into) a longer-term swing or trend short position could allow for another 8-10% upside before stopping out & still have a nice R/R on the trade.

For a longer-term trade like that, I’d rather have at least a starter position here as I can easily see a hammer-down day out of the blue any day now based on both the technical posture of the market, especially QQQ & the Mag 7, along with other factors such as fundamentals & sentiment.

I put the odds of another marginal new high in QQQ or SPY as unfavorable (i.e.- less than 50%) but most certainly can’t rule it out due to the fact the near-term and intermediate-term trends are clearly bullish coupled with the impulsive buying that followed the recent breakout above the downtrend lines on QQQ & SPY. Also, I’d imagine the mainstream media will start marching out the bull brigade to fan the FOMO flames of jumping on board the Santa Rally before its too late so there’s that (and the seasonality component to it). All in all, not yet an “all-in, throw-away-the-key” short moment just yet but as now, the R/R appears to favor being short vs. long.

There’s away the possibility of a blow-off top although I also put the odds pretty low on that but wouldn’t want to ride one out short. Taking it day by day for now but today should firm up the PPO sell signal on QQQ with SPY getting close.

Will do but at quick glance (technically); IWM, just like the large-cap indices, has negative divergence on the 60-minute charts & is approaching the 70 ‘oversold’ level on the daily RSI.
Fundamentally, the small-caps might have a chance to rally & even outperform the large caps in 2024 **IF** interest rates fall substantially from here **AND** the Fed extends the BTFB past the March 2024 expiration (which I imagine they will do in & one form or another) **AND** there aren’t any more shocks to the US or global financial system.

Those fundamental “bullish potentials” aren’t the most likely scenario IMO but with bullish divergence on the weekly chart of IWM & the fact small-caps are much more dependent on borrowing than the large caps, those are some of the things to watch IMO.