JM,
Good call by you and Randy on the breakdown.
Dip buyers stepping in this AM, trying to save the day.

Happy New Year to you & yours as well! (and everyone here)

guess it was a “glitch”

Nonetheless, i’m glad i sold all my longs and bought puts. I guess i should have bought more.

Hi Kevin,

Very kind of you to say. I’ll continue to post my moves fwiw.

Kudos JM. Those are the kind of long term signals I’d like to see and hear.
When are you going to start an investing site ?
Let me know the next time when you’re going 100% long again.

Yep, in my previous career as a financial advisor, the brokerage firms I worked for all indoctrinated the reps with that “It’s all about time in the market, not timing the market” saying and made sure that was the message we were communicating to our clients & driving out investment strategy (“Don’t be sore; buy more!!”)

While that has certainly worked well for the past 40+ years since we’ve been in the largest & longest secular bull market which was 100% a result of the concurrent secular bear market in interest rates, I fear that “buy & hold/buy & hope” mantra is going to cause irreparable damage to a lot of pre & current retirees if we’re looking at something similar to the path the Nikkei took over the past several decades once their credit & asset bubble burst back in the early 90’s & the all the ZIRP & QE from the BOJ as well as fiscal stimulus just stopped working once the market decided the jig was up.

Maybe my outlook & analog to the US now & Japan back then is wrong but if not, the consequences would be dire, especially with the “Buy & hope/Fed will always save the day” mentality solidly ingrained in both the dumb (public) & smart money (wall street pros).

You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme so I’ll believe the “no landing thing” when I see it (if the market makes it thru 2024 without a recession and/or another big leg down in the stock market). Watch interest rates & inflation going forward as that will dictate just how long the Fed can continue to print money every time there something that threatens the bull market pops up.

Remember: EUR/USD down usually = stock market, gold, silver, & GDX down as well.

started the year with 100% of 401k in value fund. moved to cash 7/20/23. moved back to value fund 10/11/23. moved to cash 12/28/23. total return for the year +34%. Just remember what the eggspurts say: you can’t time the market.