Keep in mind that the 3x ETFs are typically best for day trading & short term swing trading due to the decay. Regarding the small caps, one can make a case to short here at the top of the big 2 year trading range (around 200), with the appropriate stops above (allowing for at least a relatively brief breakout/potential whips) for a long-term swing short but I can most certainly see the possibility of the R2K breaking out & running hard IF the Fed reverts back to their usual stimulative/dovish ways AND nothing major breaks in the financial system AND the economy & job market holds up in 2024.

Simply: Short IWM/TWM, etc.. around 200 with a stop using a 3:1 or better R/R to your target(s) which could be the bottom of the range (163ish) or my next bear market target (T4 which is the intersecting primary uptrend line & 144ish support on the weekly chart).

LOL.. I’ve probably covered my bear market targets over a hundred times since Jan 2022 when I laid out 4 long-term targets on the weekly chart of QQQ. The market bottomed in Oct 2022 when T3 was hit with quite the reaction off that one so far. T4 remains 235 although I will most likely be adding additional longer-term targets if & when we start to approach it.

First things first & that would be to eliminate the case for any type of blow-off top scenario in 2024 if the Fed continue to go back to full-blown dovish/support the markets mode. Certainly can’t rule that out & definitely can’t ride it out short.

Big divergences & other indications of a major top still intact on the weekly & even monthly time frames as of now but I continue to monitor those regularly & will LYK if something changes.

Sure. A solid break below this 60m uptrend line & especially the 4740ish BOD support level will provide a high-probability sell signal on /ES. Price targets shown at arrow breaks with those 2nd & 3rd targets only potential, depending on what else I see between now & /ES approaching that first target (assuming the sell signal/breakdown comes soon).

Absolutely. No guarantees it will pay off but I can guarantee that shorting a bounce back to /NQ 16964 (and the comparable resistance on QQQ) is certainly objective & has a decent chance of panning out.

Randy. How does this change your outlook of a run up in a bear market or does it . If we continue down are you going to give us the numbers.