Was considering that myself, although I’d prefer to see how Treasuries and the stock market act once the official trading week kicks off tmrw (Tue) with the stock market closed today.

TLT closed at the 89.80 resistance on the daily chart on Friday, which was basically T3 on my 60m chart. Especially considering how near-term oversold the 30-yr is right now, I will probably close that trade at T3 (eliminating T4, the current final target) but at this time, I can only make the case for a relatively quick pullback trade on the long bond.

More directly to the points you made: Trump seems to be facing stiff resistance to his bullying of the Fed to lower rates, both from the political spectrum as well as the bond vigilantes & I think the latter speaks (and will continue to) louder than the former.

One of the biggest risks to the AI race is if & when the big tech firms realize that they are not seeing, or likely to anytime soon, a return on the insane amount of expenditures they are sinking into AI. There’s also the risk that even if they do, a good part of that will (and has already) come at the expense of other industries such as software, accounting, legal, etc, especially industries that employ a large number of people.

Honestly, we could type for days on all of the variables & factors but at the end of the day, I look at things at historical extremes, such as the Shiller PE ratio FINRA margin debt, activity of retail traders & speculative assets (meme stocks, crypto, etc..) and I strongly lean towards the bearish long-term (months to years) view but open to anything that the market (and the economy) brings our way.

Keep in mind that my wheelhouse is technical analysis (TA/charting), not so much fundamental analysis/economics, although I am fairly well-versed in the latter (biz major & former stock broker).

What you mentioned, as well as other economic factors/predictions, are certainly valid points to support the case for a soft landing or even no-landing (the economy keeps chugging along with solid growth over the next year).

Numerous current & potential conditions/developments can be used to make a solid case to the contrary (hard-landing/potential recession). At the end of the day, I believe it is infinitely easier & more profitable to use the technicals (charts) as one’s guide to positioning for longer-term investing as well as short-term swing trading, with TA pretty much the only way to swing trade, as fundamentals often take many months or years to be reflected in the price of a stock or the entire stock market.

One can make a pretty decent case either way (continued economic expansion or contraction/recession), and also keep in mind that the economy & the stock market can become quite disconnected at times.

Additionally, the global economy & stock markets are a very complex, fluid thing, which makes predicting how it will look down the road a lot like weather forecasting: A meteorologist can tell with a very high degree of accuracy if it will rain today or what the temp, cloud cover, etc.. will be but his/her accuracy goes down as the forecast extends.

Best to wait for a solid break below the 391.80 support which is the top of the recent earnings gap before shorting STX. Your uptrend line, as well as the additional one I added to this daily chart would be my first price target (they come in roughly together), with additional targets, including the 200-day MA’s.

Thanks, I did not see your comment on that other post.