Although I do think /NQ 18000 is a pretty key level: Bullish if they can hold & rally away from there (even if we get a pre-FOMC false break below it first) & bearish if 18000 goes for good, especially after Wed.

Nothing much that happens between now & Wed’s FOMC/Powell press conf. matters. Markets are likely to grind around with whipsaws below/above support/resistance levels until then.

Randy NQ hannging around 18300, any new thoughts?

SMCI still below the March 8th bearish engulfing candlestick as well as the uptrend line from the bearish rising wedge so still looks good as a swing short until & unless it moves above that March 8th high & “negates” the bearish engulfing candlestick as a topping/reversal pattern.

Keep in mind we’ll most likely see some back & forth swings leading up to & coming out of Wed’s FOMC announcement so just about anything on the markets or key stocks between now & then is just noise. Of course that’s generally speaking but for the most part, I’d take breaks below support & above resistance on the indexes & most key stocks/sectors with a big grain of salt until after the FOMC decision is out of the way.

Randy can you update SMCI

To reiterate (from last week’s analysis) we still have several key market-leading stocks that need to take out their yellow support levels AND I need to see QQQ & SPY take out Friday’s lows for what I call a “high-probability” sell signal for a swing/trend trade short.

As such, a short of this backtest (as well as the minor downtrend off the recent highs I posted on those /NQ 5 & 15-minute charts in the post above) is certainly objective but it just don’t have nearly as good a chance of playing out as would a swing short if we get the sell signals I’m watching for on majority of the FKA Mag 7 & key indexes along with a break below Friday’s lows on SPY & QQQ.

Also worth noting is the fact that IEF remains well in the yellow zone & we also have the FOMC rate decision on deck for Wed at 2pm so expect some volatility & whipsaws (false buy & sell signals) until then.