I don’t think a black swan will be required to take down the stock market if the jobs market continues to deteriorate, as consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP. IWM is at MASSIVE resistance right now, so at minimum, you might want to wait for a solid breakout and/or successful backtest of this huge triple-top pattern (IWM weekly chart below).

Certainly a possibility & even a decent probability. Let’s see if today’s rejection off the recently broken 60m uptrend line on /NQ & QQQ (and minor uptrend line/wedge breakdowns) sticks or not.

Also, let’s see if this rise in Treasury yields following last week’s rate cut is just a blip or the start of another trend, as it was when the Fed started the last rate-cutting cycle a year ago.

As of now, dips have been very shallow & getting bought up quickly, so if & as each of the support levels/targets on those /NQ & QQQ 60m charts gets taken out, that would open the door to the next downside targets & show a change of character in the market (again, if so).

IWM lagging for so long, but now finally breaking out.
Looking very bullish .especially with more rate cuts coming.
Other than a black swan, good time to join the ride ?