Exactly. Dip buyers are likely to buy pullbacks to support, especially the very obvious one’s such as this big gap, one the bigger pullbacks like this as long as the market is above the 200’s.

If & when we fall back below them, that will be a knife through the bulls’ hearts & stops will start getting hit & the algos will flip the switch from “buy the dips” to “sell the rips”.

Got to be cautious until 200’s are taken out.

Thank you for the added info/thoughts

Also keep in mind that even though the probabilities of my longer-term swing/trend targets (50%+ downside) on the market have decreased since SPY & QQQ moved above & are still trading above the 200-day MA’s, they only decreased from high (70-80%+) to what have still stated is favorable (i.e.- above 50% but below 70%).

Hence, there is still a decent (not great, but decent) chance that the recent highs in the market could have marked the end of a counter-trend rally within a larger bear market with the next leg down starting this week.

A “LOT” must happen to firm that up but I put the word “lot” in parentheses because those things (to follow) could take weeks or even months… or mere days (next week or so starting with the 4 day trading week next week). Basically, those ‘things’ would be QQQ & SPY falling back below the 200-day MA’s & then below the bottom of my bounce target zone (466ish on QQQ).

As such, I will take the charts as they develop & trade accordingly, either adding to or subtracting from my still partial long-term swing/trend short positions in my longer-term accounts while more actively swing trading off the intraday & daily charts in my primary trading account.

Thank you for your insights.

Maybe, not sure but leaning towards more of that “hackey sack” analogy I often use where the reaction is relatively muted (i.e. – a relatively minor & fleeting bounce and/or sideways-ish trading). Long-side traders will buy here since it is the top of that big gap I highlighted in videos this week with many of the recently bruised & hen-pecked nervous shorts covering since this is the first half-decent pullback in a while.

This could mark the end of the drop but even if the odds are less that 50% that we continue lower before much of a bounce (3%+), I like the potential payoff of sitting tight on the $NDX & $RUT shorts & $VIX long as there could be a sudden & swift change in positioning as the algos & HFT‘s kick in to exacerbate the selling & accelerate the direction of the current short-term (now bearish) trend.

I am about to pour over the charts of the Mag 8 stocks, key sectors, Treasuries, & more to determine where we are likely to go from either here and/or T2, should that be hit today which I still think is likely (as per my call when I first posted the QQQ short trade on Tue & a couple of times since..stating I thought T2 would likely be hit this week). Hence, today is Friday so that gives me about another 6.5 hours in the regular session put the AH session to be right on that call.