Because the global markets, i.e., ‘the bond vigilantes’ are finally checking the US’s trajectory of unsustainable deficit spending, which is on the verge of hitting escape velocity (at least IMO), if the 10 & 30-yr yields break out to new multi-year, which will also be multi-decade highs (something I’ve been & still am expecting in the coming yrs, quite possible this yr).

At that point & even at the current trajectory, the only way the US will be able to service their massive & ever-growing debt load is by printing new money/bonds in order to be able to service the increasing debt payments, as tax receipts will no longer do so (and God knows they are going to make any substantial cuts gov’t spending). That is basically saying you will get “your money back” when your 10 or 30-yr bond comes due, but at a big discount when adjusted for the massive currency debasement (i.e.- you get the same amount of dollars as the face value of the bond but those dollars are worth a lot less than when you bought it).

Either way, the current trajectory of deficit spending is unsustainable & just try & imagine what will happen if, nay when, the next REAL recession hits the US economy, taking tax revenues & requiring the need for additional (stimulative) gov’t spending. Oh my, don’t get me started… ;-)

Either way, that’s longer-term stuff. I’ll update /ZB & TLT asap from the shorter-term charts.

Finally, many of the more liquid futures contracts have a smaller ‘clone’ version with a smaller multiplier (/NG>/QG; /SI>/SIL; /GC>/MCG; /NQ>/MNQ; /RTY./M2K, etc…). While I usually post the chart of the “main” contract, feel free to ask me (or do a quick google search) to see if there is a MINY or other smaller version of the futures contract you plan to trade.

So basically, a lot of the trades setups that I post on rsotc.com are those with potentially explosive moves, such as the recent silver short & many of the nat gas long & short trades in recent yrs. Therefore, those types of positions AT THOSE TIMES, are what IB is likely to crank down the screws on, so again, best to plan, account for, & if needed, quickly adjust in order to avoid getting blown out by IB’s (or your own brokers’) margin algos.

Dear Trader,

Currently, risk-based margin requirements for products are computed using a SPAN-like margin methodology that calculates the potential worst-case loss a portfolio can suffer over a given period (typically one day). The methodology uses a series of hypothetical market scenarios that reflect changes to underlying price and, in the case of options, time decay and changes to implied volatility as well.
Effective February 4, 2026, IBKR will implement a change to its current risk-based margin framework, with a new VaR-like margin methodology that allows for more granular and dynamic adjustments to margins. Changes will be put into effect sometime after the New York regular trading hours close on February 3, 2026.

As the margin impact is portfolio-dependent, we recommend that you review the full impact on your account prior to, during, and following full implementation. In addition, please take the necessary steps to remain margin-compliant to avoid becoming subject to forced liquidations. To evaluate the full impact of this proposed change on your margin requirements, please see KB Article 2957: Risk Navigator: Alternative Margin Calculator and utilize the margin mode setting in Risk Navigator by selecting “MARGIN 20260204“.

Consistent with our stated policy, accounts that are unable to carry a position under this new margin requirement are subject to liquidation

No, I believe not only do the exchanges have the power (and at times, will) to change (almost always increase, typically when volatility has increased significantly recently) the margin requirements, so do individual brokerages (above what the exchanges require).

In fact, it’s about to get worse, at least for Interactive Brokers, as they just sent this email out to acct holders a few days ago. That means they can, at a whim, change their margin requirements & blow you out of a position that could have just temporarily moved against you, just before a big run in the direction you were positioned for.

Bottom line is make sure to allow a decent buffer & regarding /NG, you can always use /QG instead (same price/chart as /NG but a smaller multiplier (leverage factor) per contract.

(I’ll post the IB email regarding their upcoming margin changes in a reply to this one, due to the character limits for each comment reply)

Is there a way to avoid this? (other than being rich)