My bad Randy but you got it, the stock we brought up few months ago.
I don’t follow the news – I just randomly went through some stocks and saw URBN down almost 8% today.
I see your targets, first wait and see if it breaks below s1.

Oh, it just hit me that you’re probably referring to URBN with all that recent buzz from that Sidney What’sHerName jeans marketing campaign, right? If so, yes & here’s my daily chart with targets. If not, UONEK or another, LMK.

You’d need to be more specific on which ‘Urban’ company…

Not really. GLD still locked in that multi-month sideways trading range that started back in early April, pretty much smack in the middle of the range now.

Waiting to see which was that resolves but with the negative divergences that continue to build on the daily chart…AND… the fact that any new high, any time soon, will be a divergent high, I still favor an ULTIMATE (e.g.- if a breakout above, that breakout will fail) downside resolution from this trading range.

Sorry, had to leave my desk for an appt yesterday & just catching up now. Wish I saw your question earlier as CRWD recently kissed the 200-day EMA a week or so ago, bounced slightly & today kissed both the intersecting 200-day SMA & EMA with an impulsive reversal (off that objective entry) so far today. Plus, a bullish crossover on the daily PPO yesterday,as well as follow-thru today.

The one thing giving me pause from taking it here (besides the fact I missed the opportune entry at the 200’s earlier today) is that CRWD has good support somewhat below the 200’s around 392 that it might want to test soon.

Either way, here’s my chart with support & resistance levels & right now, the stock is in what I call “no man’s land”; smack between (price) support & resistance (but above the 200-day MA’s support).

Depends on the setup/techicals at the time, plus my trading plan. e.g- Sometimes, I feel very confident that nat gas is at or near a major turn, in which case I might use a gradual scale in process… and/or suddenly go to a full position, if I see a compelling reason to do so.

Sometimes, I take very precise, tactical trades such as breakouts of very well-defined bullish or bearish chart patterns on the intraday charts for a swing trade with a precise entry & exit points. In that case, I will typically end up with about a 3:1 R/R with my stop set tactically somewhat below a technical level that I think will mean the breakout will have failed or the trade won’t pan out if taken out. Lots of moving parts, but yes, a 3:1 R/R is probably the best all-around R/R for most swing trades IMO, but again, that varies from trade to trade, even on the same security in different instances.

got off the roller coaster for 3% gain

the right chart

What risk reward ratio do you normally use for UNG? 3/1

Thanks for the reply. I read the page and now understand that the juice really isn’t worth the squeeze in the 3x stock I’ve been swing trading. Yes, I’ve had some great days in TNA/TZA, but I rarely get in right before the big moves.

Going forward I won’t touch them unless it’s purely a day trade and the market is experiencing a big move > 3% +/-

UNG is a strange bird in that it tracks an essential commodity (nautral gas) that cannot go to zero, but it can and has had periods of down trends that don’t offer a decent return before trending down for a while.

For instance, I think that an entry on 7/23 at the close would have been aggressive, but more or less in line with your trading strategy. There was a divergent low and the price closed right on a trendline that goes back to 4/24. The max gain on that trade until now was + 3.22%, the very next day. It would have been underwater everyday since, with a low of -13.65%. As of today’s close it would be down -11%. 5 wks of waiting and still being down that much is not fun.
ooops the chart in my reply below is the correct one

No. The only time you’d want to be long BOIL vs. UNG (assuming you don’t trade futures as /NG is my preferred proxy for nat gas) is when you have a very high degree of confidence that nat gas is about to rip on a mostly uni-directional (mostly green days) trend.

The reasoning has to due with the decay from leveraged ETFs & due to its inherent volatility, nat gas (hence, BOIL & KOLD) are about the worst offenders in the leveraged ETF world, right below the leveraged $VIX etfs.

The reasoning (math) behind this can be found in the FAQ page under Resources (go to ETF-Related Questions).

Is BOIL a better NG play overall? It has has good volume and is up about 1% more than UNG.

Thanks