Keep in mind that all known fundamental variables (current/most recent subscriber growth rates, etc..) plus most, all & often then some, of the growth expectations for the foreseeable future are usually priced into a stock after an extended run. Yes, that is a general statement with exceptions but at this point in the market cycle & factoring in the performance of NFLX over the past couple of years, I believe that the most optimistic scenario, and quite likely then some, is already priced into NFLX.

Fundamentals, aside, the 30% drop that I believe NFLX will experience before rising another 10% or more is based almost exclusively on the technicals (charts). NFLX is one of just a handful of the beloved FANG stocks in which people believe can do no wrong and just as the old saying regarding the end of a bear market goes “It’s always darkest just before the dawn”, I like to say that the inverse of that holds true, where “the sun is always shining brightest just before dusk”: Despite historically extreme high valuations, the 85% rise in NFLX over the past 3.3 months, a not-exactly svelte P/E ratio of 257, etc., people seem more interested in buying NFLX than shorting it now, as evidenced by the fact that the two most recent short interest levels were the lowest in at least a year.

As with all trade ideas on RSOTC, this one will either pan out or not. I share what I see & while the trade ideas are not buy or sell recommendations, simply my take on the charts & where a stock is likely headed, I would certainly agree that if my analysis on a stock, ETF, sector, etc.. does not mesh with someone else’s, they should pass & wait for a setup that aligns with their own analysis & trading style. As always, your feedback & any viewpoints that differ from my own are not only welcomed but encouraged.

Neither scenario means anything concrete otherwise trading would be easy. The price could perhaps treble from here based on revenue increase of 25% in the next 12 months…..I wouldn’t be buying it on those numbers but there are many many that did last year……hopefully they take profits along the way:)

Agreed. Thx for sharing.

Don’t jinx it ;-) All kidding aside, it’s only a great call if & when the final price target is hit before the max. suggested stop but I will like the trade even better if & when NFLX takes out this 60-min rising wedge with conviction.
I’m still leaning towards new highs in the SPX but open to any new developments that the charts dish out & more importantly, I think we are at one of those stages in the broad market where market breadth starts to deteriorate as fewer & fewer mega-caps stocks lift the indexes higher with an increasing number of individual stocks breaking down & starting their own significant corrections or bear markets.
As such, I will continue to post a mix of the most attractive long trade ideas along with the most attractive (bearish) short trade ideas for the foreseeable future. Best of luck on NFLX if you took it or plan to soon.
I also owe props to @jegersmart for pointing out the NFLX setup in the trading room last week.. thx!