Great that you track that. If the inflation genie escapes the bottle, it may be wise to long metals.

I used to follow Treasuries as well as corp bonds closely for any potential red flags for the equity markets (e.g.- rising credit spreads concurrent with rising equities). However, the Fed has essentially destroyed the age-old mechanism known as price discovery with their massive intervention in the fixed income markets & as such, I try not to read too much into what bonds are doing now.
I suspect that the recent drop in Treasuries is most likely due to inflationary forces. The Fed tells us that inflation is running very low yet two of the biggest components of the CPI, housing & food, have been moving sharply higher since the Fed flooded the system with excessive liquidity & ZIRP in response to the stock market plunge back in Feb-March. Cotton, sugar, livestock, wheat, corn, lumber, oil, etc… all rallying strong since the March lows just as the housing market, both rents & home prices. Sure, the Fed can tell us inflation isn’t an issue as long as they want but sooner or later the bond market will reflect what’s really going on.
BTW, TLT has just fallen to the 200-day EMA & SMA, which have done a very good job of acting as support & resistance in recent years so my guess would be TLT either consolidates here some more or bounces. However, a solid break below the 200-day MA’s would be bearish for TLT & may be a warning that the inflation genie has escaped from the bottle.

What do you make of the recent intra-day action on treasuries? TLT is has been on a march down today and the last time bond prices dropped drastically in June they were followed by a 10% decline in ES.