Comments on: Market Analysis & Trade Ideas 5-1-23

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 02 May 2023 14:47:34 +0000

I already talked about that(NVDA breakout above its trading range) before it happened the day my SOXX short trade hit support. I covered the individual semis in that video stating that many of them were at support where a bounce was likely & could be taken as longs at that time (day of the lows last week). Talked about an upside break of the range in NVDA most likely spike the stock into major resistance (which it did) & how that would be a marginal new but still divergent high setting the stage for an even bigger drop.So far, semis bounced off that key support & that bounce has now likely run its course IMO: https://youtu.be/tvSHF7Ib8B0?t=1043

By: seasix

seasix — Tue, 02 May 2023 14:05:32 +0000

Looks like PACW bank is next to go under. Maybe randy talking crash is right.

By: HermonMunster

HermonMunster — Mon, 01 May 2023 21:11:05 +0000

I’m late mentioning it but SGG and CANE were ripe for a pullback. I use thinkorswim and cannot short them.

By: Jarrett

Jarrett — Mon, 01 May 2023 19:27:54 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. Thanks Jeff!

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Mon, 01 May 2023 19:25:03 +0000

In reply to Jarrett. More goes into the CPI than commodity prices, but if commodity prices are a decent indicator of inflation readings, then CPI should come in lower than expected, as commodity prices across the board were weaker in April, and given that April CPI estimates are slightly higher than the March numbers.

By: Jarrett

Jarrett — Mon, 01 May 2023 19:10:56 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. Hey Jeff (or whoever else), I keep wondering if it will come down to the CPI report on the 10th, if the FED sees inflation flaring up again. I know Randy uses DJP as a proxy for inflation, and with a 28 SMA on a daily chart, it seems possible that things may be higher in the next report, which has thrown the market into a tizzy before. I just wonder if the negative feedback loop that Randy talked about with inflation will start to play out then. Let me know if you have any thoughts though, I'd love to hear them.

By: trade0039

trade0039 — Mon, 01 May 2023 19:07:57 +0000

In reply to Jeff Vandenburgh. I'm surprised that Randy forgot to talk about Semis especially breakout on NVDA!

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Mon, 01 May 2023 18:49:51 +0000

You are exactly right about supply and demand for bonds, Randy. And as the debt ceiling is dealt with, there will need to be new issuance of treasuries in the 2nd half of the year. That means more supply without enough demand from the market to absorb it. Therefore, the Fed will have to pivot in the form of yield-curve-control and become the buyer of treasuries once again. This may be why Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a pivot later this year. Equity markets also seem to know this and, hence, rate-sensitive sectors, such as tech, are outperforming.

By: Jeff Vandenburgh

Jeff Vandenburgh — Mon, 01 May 2023 18:22:11 +0000

Big Tech has been a relative safe haven since 2008. Since then, even in the face of, at times, a very slow-growing economy, investors have found safety in mega-cap tech stocks that continue to grow despite economic headwinds. Of course, extremely low interest rates allowed these stocks to trade at high valuations. But now, since rates have risen, these stocks have corrected back into more reasonable valuations. Further gains are possible from here given the idea that the Fed will pause before any real harm is done to the greater economy. Sure, there’s been carnage in regional banks, but the fact that employment is still at record highs along with better wages, and while commodity prices continue to stay weak, indicating lower inflation (as the China reopening story dies), there is a likelihood that recession is further away than previously feared. And without a recession or higher interest rates from here, what would be the catalyst for a major decline in the mega-caps?

By: trade0039

trade0039 — Mon, 01 May 2023 17:43:05 +0000

META, NVDA and AAPL is breaking out!