Comments on: Market Analysis & Trade Ideas 4-28-20

By: mataloha@gmail.com

mataloha@gmail.com — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 14:19:17 +0000

Great discussion on log vs. linear scales. A "line" drawn on a log scale is actually not a line on a linear scale. So its more like a trend "curve". IMO its better to use a linear scale for short term time frames. I believe that log scales allow the user to see very long term trends in relation to modern price action on the same chart. But if everyone is looking at log scales on a short term basis (which doesn't really make sense) it may still have some value.

By: Dbat83

Dbat83 — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 03:55:58 +0000

In reply to lalitb2288. Tech already has a massive run up. Small caps have been lagging, hence why they’re moving so much more

By: Tstonger

Tstonger — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 00:57:35 +0000

@rsotc If one were to try to do a big trend trade short on this market and try to get the most bang for his buck one would naturally look to 3x Bearish ETF's. Although you mentioned that the slippage is big on them. Their bounce backs have been unfairly huge, and have lost money from holding them for the long haul. Even getting in at the top and holding has lost money while the market has only done .618. But I am still tempted to use them to get the most possible out this crash for the weeks/months to come. But I fear their gains will scale off as the crash gets prolongs making them less desirable. If you had options and bought Puts on the 3x Bullish ETFs would that allow the slippage to work in your favor and be the best way to short this market for a long term trend trade? Less profit but less bounce backs? I cannot wrap my mind around what is the most profitable strategy to short. It seems the markets have made it difficult to short them profitably with the vehicles offered. How would do it for the most profit?

By: ribrob

ribrob — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 21:49:12 +0000

@rsotc Hi Randy, Could you give your thougths on IWM and or /RTY ?

By: rsotc

rsotc — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 20:00:35 +0000

In reply to lalitb2288. I like to caution that one day doesn't make a trend so best not to read too much into that unless you see a trend (of money moving from tech into other sectors) start to develop. I will say that it speaks to the point that I mentioned today in which 8 of the 11 sectors in the SPX are green right now as the market is about to close, yet the index is solidly red, poised to close down 1/2% simply because 3 of the largest sectors (XLK, XLV, & XLC) are down.

By: bransth

bransth — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 19:14:55 +0000

Huge week!

By: lalitb2288

lalitb2288 — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 19:11:31 +0000

@rsotc – Hey Randy, so I noticed that all sectors except XLK, XLV and XLC are trending higher today. Is that indicative of smart money moving out of the mega-cap stocks into small/mid-cap stocks (more bang for your buck) since they were beat up the most? This makes me think that we are now in a bull trend (long term) and portfolio diversification is taking place. Any comments? Thanks!

By: jwconk

jwconk — Tue, 28 Apr 2020 19:07:28 +0000

@rsotc what do you think about real estate shorts for diversification? Could you review the sector?