It was clearly a WILD close – last 22 minutes straight up and then one of the CRAZIEST rallies post the close that I have seen on an Opex day +.87% on QQQ – WOW!

Throughout the history of opex that I have studied since 1998, there are almost always BIG bounces when the market is deeply oversold and below the bollinger bands during the opex period. The only time that market drops continued – without a substantive bounce was back in February 2001 when there was a bounce in to opex week. Otherwise, there is almost always a 2% minimum bounce.

The one other VERY RARE dynamic is the close below the lower weekly bollinger band for opex. It last happened in March 2025 and then May 2022 and March 2020. Plus the previously mentioned August 2015…. There was also December 2018… and a few other BIG dates like November 2008… January 2008, etc…

I have always thought you were spot on about a very quick move down to your targets and the stage is set for it – whether first there is a bounce to the 200 day MA (and possibly slightly over it) or a direct flush, I have no idea. I just know the stage is set… and a lot of the “extreme boxes” have been ticked. (Below 200 day MA, below lower daily bollo and lower weekly bollo)

Waterfall declines are scary – before last March, the last year with lots of weekly bollo breaches and swift declines was 2022 – and people just forget about these instances and human emotion takes over.

Thanks for all your perspective. I am definitely pleased that I have become a sub!

-D

Welcome & thanks for sharing your thoughts (and the details) on that. In fact, someone recently posted a question in the trading room regarding today’s triple witching, which I meant to get back to when I get a minute. I am aware of the potential big intraday swing and/or daily moves on TW days, and maybe some major bottoms are put in then as stops of weak-handed longs are blown out & new short sellers get sucked in?

I know there is also a lot of position squaring from the commercials on & around TW days, but at the end of the day… I find it best to just go off the charts. Should today’s sell signals on the breakdowns below those key support levels & 200-day MA’s on SPY, QQQ, /ES, & /NQ that I was looking for prove to be whipsaws (closing solidly back above those support levels by the close today and/or into next week, then that would be bullish, until & unless THAT pop back above also proves to be a whipsaw, followed by another move down that takes out today’s lows (very bearish, if that happens, IMO).

Again, thx for sharing your thoughts & those stats.

One other point – the bottom in November was on November opex day.
I still favor a post opex bottom and bounce to the 200 day MA and maybe slightly above it.

Last, last one on OPEX – for NOW – the most famous post Opex bottom is the Crash of 1987…
Other than not being a Triple Witching, August 2015 has a lot of technical similarities to right now. Opex week was a HUGE DOWN week through the lower daily and lower weekly bollos and then there was a Semi FLASH CRASH on the Monday morning post opex.

-D

OPEX and POST OPEX can provide VERY powerful bottoms – when the market is VERY OVERSOLD!
I just reviewed the list when SPX was at / below lower daily bollo and it is a list of some MAJOR bottoms – the BIG difference is this market is not that oversold…. BUT, it has a lot of the elements…..
Some of the BIG Triple Witch bottoms with the SPX below the lower daily bollo:
-June 2022 (Opex Friday)
-March 2020 (Monday post opex)
-December 2018 (Wednesday post opex post Xmas)

There are others that fit the criteria that I was looking for like Jan 2016, Aug 2011, Nov 2008

The ONE element that is missing now from these opex periods is the long slide before… It is a crucial difference. The SPX is getting there on this point…. but most of these BIG turns were well below the 200 day MA – in fact, all of them started the opex period below the 200 day MA

My best guess after studying opex weeks and believing in their power (since 2008) is for a bottom post opex (Monday to Wednesday) and then a rally to test and possibly even briefly surpass the 200 day MA.

-D

Thank you for all your hard work. Sgov is iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF. Have a great weekend.

I can’t provide specific investment advice, nor am I familiar with the money market fund options at Schwab, but generally speaking, most brokerage MMF’s a very safe as they invest in very short-term (days to months), very liquid & safe money market instruments such as T-bills, repo agreements, etc.

I believe Schwab offers a sweep option for cash balances into an FDIC-insured bank acct so probably the best bet for those who aren’t comfortable with brokerage MMF options. Most brokers also offer US Treasury/Securities (only) MMFs.

BTW- The biggest risk to investors, should there be a really bad market crash (other than losses in risky/growth positions like stocks, crypto, etc) would be the potential for their brokerage firm failing. Very low risk at this time, IMO, especially with the mainstream, established brokers like Schwab, Fidelity, etc. Yes, SIPC insurance (up to coverage amounts) will kick in to replace any “lost” securities, in kind, but not something you want to go through, nor does SIPC coverage any market losses on those securities.. As such, best to watch the stock price of any publicly traded brokerage firms one has accounts with for any unusual drop in the stock price (beyond what the other firms are doing at that time).

No firm convictions on where oil is headed in the near-term… too many fluid variables with the Middle-East situation right now. However, once the dust settles & the shipping lanes are open, whether crude goes to $150-200/bbl before then or not, I expect a very big drop & profitable swing/trend shorting opp, assuming my deeper targets on the stock market are being hit or OTW being hit, due to demand destruction (global recession getting underway).

Lots of potential “if’s” & “whens” to that & I will definitely start sharing my thoughts on crude once I start to get some confidence in my read on the charts & fundamentals. Until then, better fish to fry elsewhere with much better R/R‘s & objective entry points & price targets.