The VIX is actually the primary reason why the moves look legit to me. I posted extensively in the chat yesterday afternoon and again this morning that the VIX spot was above where VXG23 was trading. I’ve never seen that happen for more than a short time period and it usually marks the vol top with market makers stepping-in to correct the arbitrage.

That’s one of many things that have been different. NQ and ES are trading like we’re back in 2015. Such pure, unfettered, and clean price discovery. I really hope this continues into next week because scalping this action is like shooting fish in a barrel.

I can’t give anyone specific investment advice but I can say that as of now (2:28 pm EST), I will be taking all of the swing short positions that I recently started scaling into & quite likely adding to them before the close as I’m not seeing much in the way of that fake-out rally scenario so far today even though the indexes are off their lows.

I’ve highlighted XLF several times in videos over the past week or so as one of my favor sectors to short. XLF was just rejected off that key 37ish resistance with big negative divergences & looks poised for a nice drop in the coming weeks IMO. Here’s my daily chart.

$VIX recently made an impulsively breakout above a well-defined downtrend line on Dec 6th, continued higher for the next 4 days (and started even higher on the 5th day) with that breakout being 100% faded & then some since (until the bottom a week or so ago). So yes, the $VIX does sometimes spike hard or make clear breakouts that fail but I do agree that the breakout in the $VIX coupled with the breakdowns below the uptrend lines on the indexes is a pretty solid sell signal for the market. Just smelling what might be a brief bear trap but the longer QQQ & SPY trade below those trendlines & the further the drop below them, the greater the chance yesterday’s sell signals stick & play out for a decent, swing tradable correction.

XLE has been testing the primary uptrend line over the past week or so & has big negative divergences building (both on the daily time frame). It appears that a major top/trend reversal is likely coming soon, assuming the Nov 14th high wasn’t THE top but XLE will need to clearly take out & start moving well below that uptrend line to help firm up the case that the top is in. Here’s my chart.

Good observation & quite often (but not always) that is the case. I do like anticipating & often getting in front of the bullish & bearish crossover but typical if other technical developments or events help to support taking a position.

to counter that gc hit the 50dma and held ground.. so i guess mkt is in
a quandary over which way gold may go…

We’d also prefer to see real yields moving lower to get more money moving into gold, but yields are ripping higher today.