Thx for your response Randy

No he’s long retired living the good life. Despite Randy’s thoughts he was long TSLA.

To me it looks like IWM is coiling to push thru that resistance. But until it is taken out…resistance is resistance.

The ‘island’ was already put in place on the June 11th gap down. Ideally, SPY should have followed up with a second red candle the following day on June 12th (but didn’t) or at least continued to move below that June 11th candle shortly afterward. Instead, SPY has been locked in a sideways trading range since… not the ideal follow-thru to what is normally a fairly reliable sell signal.
Does it matter if the gap is fully backfilled or even then some (SPY moves above the top of the gap but not above the top of the island?), maybe.. probably, but this market is not acting normal. I’d like to chalk it up to the massive Fed intervention & price distortions they have caused or maybe my style of TA just isn’t in sync with the stock market right now (or a little of both). For now, I think the sell signal from the island cluster top & trendline break/gap down is still intact with another leg down likely to come from around these levels but the sideways trading range since that sell signal is not typical nor ideal for the case for more downside.

I do think IWM has significant resistance around that level & although my R line is at 145.08, it is more of a resistance zone of around 145-146ish, which also includes the 200-day SMA which comes in at 146.33 right now. It would be a bullish technical event if IWM can clearly take out that resistance area and yes, an objective long entry but I’ll have to see what else is going on with the charts of IWM as well as the other indexes at the time to decide if it looks like an ideal entry or not. So far today, IWM had another rejection off that level which helps to define it as resistance (after parking there at the close yesterday).

I wouldn’t say the stock market is melting up. The tech sector/FAAMGs/QQQ has a strong bid beneath it recently but not the broad market (SPY), which is trading at the same level it was over 5 weeks ago. Small caps (IWM) is also a more diversified index than QQQ, much more representative of the US economy & that is trading where it was about 6 weeks ago. “The stock market” refused to go down but it stopped going up, or at least started moving sideways, over a month ago. And yes, the is a widely held belief that the stock market will only go up as long as the Fed wills it. Just their latest in a long history of bubbles.

Is there an inverse analyst to Randy?

Re guarding the FED 40% of the FED’s Q.E has made it’s way into the TGA (Treasury general account) Yes that would be Trumps Treasury account 1.2 Trillion currently and can deploy that money when and where he wants it and doesn’t have to let anyone know.. Dont fight the FED and Treasury at the same time with 1.2 trillion in its checking acc..Lol.

If this is the case then he should seriously let any new member joining that he is not offering any official long trade ideas in the broad markets at this time (due to whatever reason)and wont until the markets come down to a level I am comfortable with? (whatever that is?) See how many take the service then. 2 years IT”S RIDICULOUS!

none/done

And just to add I do think if you miss a move like this an unwavering trend(in this case higher but even if it was lower) and catch none of it there is something seriously flawed w/ your analysis. You catch absolutely done of this run. You weren’t early or late to the party you were at the wrong address.

I appreciate your response. I just want an objective view of the market not someone declaring”they’re never going long even if this market goes to the moon.” You can’t just take a blanket position that doesn’t take into account candlestick patterns and actions by the fed. He’s just hell bent on being on the sideline or short this market. He’s wrong. He’s been wrong. He missed a 40 percent moved in an Index a historical move and categorized it as a grind higher. He continues to grab charts like the xlf and present it to compliment his bearish case. He didn’t like the nasdaq getting to 8000 its in blue sky on its way to 11,000. He’s described this market very recently as a bear market rally. Its a 100 percent FIb retracement and then some. I just want someone to read the charts objectively. He doesn’t even have to present the qqq and spy chart because he’s a short no matter how it looks. I do appreciate the way you presented your thoughts. Can’t he just read the chart w/o his bias – I don’t care if the market goes up or down I just want to be on the right side of the trend.

Personally, I feel like by accepting to pay a membership on this site, it sorta means you adhere to Randy’s trading style philosophy and maybe its a similar reflection to your own style. Randy definitely has a commitment to his ideas. I don’t hear him being hypocritical, and never once have I heard him flip flop on his ideals, or jump on a popular bandwagon. I understand his trading advice isn’t exactly what you want to hear, and that’s cool, but instead of verbally kicking him, why not go to another site that has advice more parallel to your thinking and in line with your own trading style? I am not saying if you don’t like it leave, and I am attempting to write this in a non-mean, non-threatening way. Just if his style isn’t like yours, there are plenty of other sites out there that called the run up. Perhaps those are more suited to your tastes and they read the charts more in line with your style.

I like hearing what Randy has to say, and I also compliment his analysis, when I have time, with other opinions or reads on the market. I don’t fault Randy for his analysis. I assume he is reading it through his interpretation, and that’s what I pay for.

I hear you my friend. Technical analysis is suppose to give you a window/incite to help identify a trend and then the trend is your friend until its not. All he does is bring up the spy and qqq and say the risk reward isn’t favorable. Yes Im sure its not seeing all you want to do is try and short this market for the last close to 1000 handles in the s&p 500. All he does is pick support and resistance levels on the chart nothing magical to that and just gets that little part wrong – market direction. He has heard about the FED hasn’t he can anyone confirm.

Agree!! Chart-ist’s should not have a bias.Read the dang CHARTS! He ignores basic candlestick patters, long consolidation breakouts on good volume (over several months!),short term pullbacks on low volume and longer term trend line recaptures as well as successful breakouts and retests of key resistance levels and longer term moving averages. This is basic charting 101 just ignored!..It’s like the only thing that matters is the daily RSI and PPO..
Sorry for the blow up this has gone on too long and is simply ridiculous and someone has to say something. I’ve tried in the past to no avail..I am done and good luck to you all and see you on the short side..

Totally agree. He takes a short stance 2 years ago and it never needs to be reassessed or questioned no matter what the fed does – nope short. It never looks like a good risk/reward to go long because you’re biased and a short. You don’t read chart candlesticks w/ a predetermined direction long or short. You’re supposed to be the umpire calling balls and strikes.

I have been a member here for almost 2 years now and in most of these 2 years Randy rarely if at all posts an official long trade Idea in a stock in either the Q’s or the SPY. That’s insane!!..The one thing everyone should take away from Randy’s analysis is negative divergences on a daily chart can last months and will keep you on the sidelines and miss the big moves!.. This is just stupid to be running a charting service and refuse to post a long chart setup on the broad markets for almost 2 years!

Nothing would make him go long this market and that’s called market analysis. And predetermining that you’re short the market for a year and a half is called technical analysis. Like someone else already said the experience on RSOC has been nothing but a divergent low. Just wait for the opening bell everyday and try and force feed the market your game plan… brilliant.

I just read my assessment of the current COVID-19 situation and I fail to see anything that deserved your vulgar response so I couldn’t pushback harder! It is simply an analysis of the facts. My condolences to the people in your life who have succumbed to the 19th Corona Virus humanity has had to deal with but attacking me and my non emotional assessment of the situation as it pertains to the fundamentals of the market and my rights to voice my opinion respectfully is not appropriate! I’m 61, robust and very healthy with no compromising health issues and I still take precautions so I certainly do respect the severity of the virus. And so do my six children.

It would be great if u would be mindful my father just lost 2 of his co worker hes worked with for 15 and 10 yrs the man was of 54 yrs old with 3 kids died after being in the hospital for 3 wks with respiratory infection covid and his other friend he was 48 also with 2 kids he knew him for 10 yrs he was also in the hospital for 4 wks before he passed away they were great people so quit saying stupid shit like u just did people still die regardless if its 1 percent or not thats one 2 many i wish the people that did die were related to ones that spout its not dangerous and might i say my father is 68 yrs old so I’m grateful he hasn’t gotten sick but still painful to lose those peopke you have known since u were kids.im 27 yrs old so I did know them since I was young and their all truckers by the way

Funny. I do think the deaths are a lagging indicator. It takes about 4 painful weeks in the ICU before you die so we could see it climb soon. The ICUs are filling up. Anyway the markets don’t care. Somehow I even think earnings will not be so bad. Every company is going to report better than expected earnings because the analyst were way over conservative on the estimates. Then they will forecast growth. Its easy to grow from where they are now.

We’ll find out at the close

I think the Market is much better at not falling for all the deceptive headlines and slanted reports on COVID-19 …. fatalities are way down because testing is way up! Fatalities are now at 1% and dropping everyday! 99% of the cases are non lethal! The scare mongers in the mainstream media continue their brainwashing of the ignorant populace and it is sad! IF this “bubble” is to burst anytime soon rest assured it will be forced by Election Day. The FED Chair and the Treasury Sec. are no fans of Trump so between the two of them they can pop this bubble like a zit in a heartbeat! Keeping my powder dry.