To add to those comments, that first scenario I laid out would mesh with the ultimate decoupling of the strong positive correlation between bonds and the stock market that I’ve been talking about is a possibility in the near future. i.e. – stocks start to fall on economic worries yet bonds rise due to a flight to safety from institutions moving out of stocks & into bonds. That won’t be a single event rather a gradual process that starts to develop so something to keep an eye out for.

Good question. All other things being equal, a much hotter than expected claims number should be bullish for TLT is that would indicate two things; slowing economic growth as well as a lower chance of any future rate hikes from the Fed, both of which should translate into lower yields/higher bond prices. Should claims come in around consensus that will probably be a non-event and a drop well below consensus could trigger a pull back in TLT if the market assumes it may increase the odds of another fed hike.